Türkiye's energy future could be fundamentally transformed through stronger efficiency measures—if existing policies are strengthened and expanded, domestic sources could supply 90% of energy by 2053, yielding a cumulative economic benefit of $2.1 trillion, a new report says.
According to 'Türkiye Energy Efficiency Outlook 2025' report prepared by Sabancı University's Istanbul International Center for Energy and Climate (IICEC), the 'Efficient Growth Scenario' is based on optimistic policy assumptions.
The 'Base Scenario,' which generally assumes a continuation of current policies, projects that the share of domestic resources in energy supply could increase only to two-thirds, or 66%.
The report, which includes renewable and nuclear energy when calculating the share of clean energy sources, shows that in the base scenario, the share of nuclear and renewable energy in primary energy supply increases by 2053.
Nuclear energy accounts for 16% of the energy supply in the base scenario, while its share rises to 20% in the other scenario.
In addition to reducing Türkiye's energy import bill, the efficient growth scenario also enables a nearly 50% cut in emissions.
Under this scenario, energy-related emissions fall to 191 million tons of carbon equivalent by 2053, compared to 401 million tons in the Base Scenario.
There are also striking differences between the two scenarios in terms of economic benefits.
While the base scenario yields a cumulative benefit of $1.1 trillion, the efficient growth scenario increases this figure to $2.1 trillion.
The required average annual investment is $9 billion and $13 billion, respectively. This means that for every $1 billion invested, the efficient growth approach provides $4.5 billion in benefits, while the base scenario delivers $3.2 billion.
- Electricity becomes backbone of energy system
The electrification process varies significantly between scenarios. In 2023, electricity accounted for 20% of final energy consumption, rising to 48% by 2053 in the efficient growth scenario, compared to just 36% in the base scenario.
As losses in electricity generation decrease, the share of domestic and renewable sources—particularly solar, wind, geothermal, and biofuels—rises significantly.
Energy intensity indicators also reveal clear differences between the scenarios.
In the base scenario, energy intensity drops by 46% between 2023 and 2053, while the decrease reaches 57% under the efficient growth scenario.
This trend brings Türkiye closer to OECD countries that have high per capita energy consumption and low energy intensity, boosting the country’s competitiveness.
- Same growth with less fuel
According to the report, the efficient growth scenario achieves the same economic output as the base scenario while consuming 21% less energy.
Thanks to heat pumps in buildings, electric processes in industry, and electric vehicles in transportation, fossil fuel consumption declines significantly. In this scenario, the share of fossil fuels in final energy consumption drops to 33%.
To achieve these targets, the report emphasizes the importance of scaling up efficiency investments, advancing digitalization, and increasing public awareness of energy efficiency.
It also underlines the decisive role of long-term roadmaps to be developed through collaboration among public institutions, the private sector, and academia.
By Murat Temizer
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr