The U.S. may take a more evolutionary path than Europe in electric vehicles (EV), according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies' (OIES) latest report.
The new OIES report entitled Electric Vehicles and Electricity said this is due to higher private vehicle use in the U.S., longer distances driven in private vehicles, and hence the greater concern about EV range, greater competition from conventional vehicles with the lower cost of gasoline, and less public policy pressure, at least from the federal government.
Therefore, the U.S. is where the greatest innovation is occurring and is likely to be at the forefront of driverless vehicles and other innovation, the report argued, so developments everywhere will be affected by what occurs in the U.S.
'It is also noteworthy that U.S. original equipment manufacturer's (OEM), in particular General Motors (GM), have announced that their future is electric,' the report said.
Furthermore, if EV costs fall substantially, penetration in the U.S. could rise quickly, especially for fleets for which decisions are based on “spreadsheets” or financial costs.
- EVs in developing countries
The report argued that it is even harder to predict EV penetration in developing countries, as there are simply 'too many unknowns and different circumstances' to generalize.
'However, the role of public policy will be key, as will cost,' it said, adding that China currently has the world’s largest fleet of battery EVs (BEVs), which reflects significant subsidies that will decline as EV costs fall.
The paper underlined that the importance of public policy is even more obvious in India, which announced its intention for all vehicles to be electric by 2030, but then later announced in 2018 that it was seeking a target closer to 30 percent.
The report also predicted that China and perhaps other emerging countries will manufacture EVs for their own market and increasingly for export, as China already has the largest BEV stock in the world and many Chinese equipment manufacturers have announced ambitious plans to scale up EV production.
By Ebru Sengul
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr