European gas storage is expected to reach just 39% of capacity by April 30, well below levels recorded in 2024, raising concerns over the bloc's preparedness for the next winter season.
The latest ICIS Gas and Power Foresight report suggests that the EU may permit member states to delay meeting the 90% storage target from Nov. 1 to Dec. 1, allowing more flexibility amid ongoing supply and geopolitical challenges.
The outlook comes at a critical time as net gas withdrawals begin to stabilize with milder spring temperatures, and summer stock replenishment becomes a top priority.
The Dutch TTF front-month contract has averaged €41.90 per megawatt-hours so far in April, with prices supported by the need to rebuild depleted inventories. However, the summer-winter 25 spread remains negative, undermining financial incentives for injections.
- Russian LNG policy may backfire
A recently implemented EU ban on the transshipment of Russian LNG via European ports could have an unintended consequence: more direct Russian LNG imports.
With volumes redirected from third markets, European LNG terminals could see increased inflows, despite policymakers' efforts to curb Russian energy reliance.
LNG send-out for April is forecast at 118 terawatt-hours (TWh), down 15% from March, but 11% higher year-on-year.
Italy's new floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) in Ravenna is set to begin operations this month, with the Flex Artemis vessel from the US expected to dock on April 4.
Meanwhile, an outage at Greece's Alexandroupolis LNG terminal has been extended to mid-May.
Maintenance on Norway's gas infrastructure is also expected to intensify through early April, with daily capacity cuts projected to peak at 82 million cubic meters, adding to regional supply risks.
- Demand trends and regional disparities
April gas consumption across the 12 ICIS-covered hubs is forecast at 282 TWh, a 2.3% increase year-on-year.
While residential, commercial and industrial demand are projected to rise, gas-for-power usage is expected to decline due to record-high solar output and negative clean spark spreads.
In the power sector, solar generation is forecast to reach new highs, driven by increased installed capacity and sustained high-pressure systems across much of Europe.
The surge in solar power, along with French nuclear exports and a 20% drop in hydropower output compared to last year, is pushing electricity prices down and causing a seasonal disconnect from gas prices.
According to ICIS, as European gas markets are navigating through policy ambiguity, infrastructure constraints, and global supply shifts, the coming months will be pivotal in determining whether the region can enter next winter with sufficient reserves—and at what cost.
By Murat Temizer
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr