The second line of TurkStream's natural gas pipeline project has three optional routes to Europe, the most viable being through the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), John Roberts, a senior fellow at Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center said Monday.
Roberts, who is also an energy security specialist from U.K.-based Methinks, told Anadolu Agency that the scant opposition to the Russia-Turkish joint TurkStream project is down to Russia's performance as a reliable gas supplier to Turkey for the past several years.
He admitted that although there were some commercial operational hitches concerning Russian gas to Turkey, these were more or less part of the normal course of disagreements between buyers and sellers.
He argued that currently there is an understanding of how crucial the TurkStream project is. The project, originally the South Stream, initially was planned to transfer gas via Bulgaria to Central Europe, but now it will cross through Turkey and further beyond.
"The first string that has been laid well into Turkish waters is now proceeding absolutely on target and will be capable of delivering 15.75 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas essentially for the Turkish market," he said.
He continued, "The second string is interesting. We have now got Turkish approval for that second string and that means it will definitely come ashore at Kiyikoy [northwestern Turkey]. The question is what happens to it afterwards?"
- Three options for Gazprom
Roberts envisages that the second string to Europe has three feasible route options.
"It [project company] could build a new pipeline up to Central Europe, a sort of 'son of South Stream' or it can revive the Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy project, a new pipeline across Greece and a new subsea pipeline to Italy. But the problem with both of these is cost. They come in at around €6-€7 billion. That's an awful amount of money," he asserted.
He argued that the third option is the most viable as Gazprom can simply ask for space on the TAP, which will transport natural gas from the giant Shah Deniz II field in Azerbaijan to Europe.
The approximately 878-kilometer-long TAP pipeline will connect with the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) at the Turkish-Greek border at Kipoi, cross Greece and Albania and the Adriatic Sea, before coming ashore in southern Italy.
"The pipeline will begin at Kipoi on the border of Turkey and Greece, where it will connect with the TANAP, just a kilometer away on the other side of the border from where TurkStream's second string will terminate," he explained.
"So if you can secure space on a pipeline that will carry, shall we say, around 10 bcm of gas to Italy at a proper commercial rate, why would you bother to build your own pipeline with a cost of €6-7 billion. This will make Gazprom happy, it will make Turkey happy and it will provide gas to Europe," he said.
Roberts also responded to the question of the EU's possible objection to this solution and said, "The EU cannot block it without tearing up its own regulatory structure that says all new pipelines can have an initial exemption from rules that applies to the first 10 bcm of gas going to TAP. Anything over and above that has to be competitive. If Gazprom asks for space and nobody else asks for space, it's there for Gazprom to use. It's their right to use it."
By Murat Temizer in Vienna
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
