As the world is still falling short of the Paris climate goals with no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place, urgent transformation of societies is the only option, a new report from the United Nation's Environment Program (UNEP) says Thursday.
The UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window shows that only an urgent system-wide transformation can avoid an accelerating climate disaster.
Despite the commitments to strengthen Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2030, progress since the COP26, which took place in Glasgow in November 2021, has been 'woefully inadequate', the UNEP said.
NDCs submitted since the Glasgow summit take only 0.5 gigatons of CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas emissions, less than 1%, off projected global emissions in 2030.
'This lack of progress leaves the world on a path towards a temperature rise far above the Paris Agreement goal of well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, the report said.
It calculated that unconditional NDCs are estimated to give a 66% chance of limiting global warming to about 2.6°C by the end of the century. For conditional NDCs, this goes down to 2.4°C.
Ultimately, the report showed that if current policies are not strengthened, global warming will increase by 2.8 degrees Celsius.
'Implementation of all NDCs plus net-zero commitments made by an increasing number of countries point to a 1.8°C increase. However, this scenario is not credible, based on the discrepancy between current emissions, near-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets,' the UNEP warned in the report.
To meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the global warming by 1.5°C, greenhouse gases need to decline by unprecedented levels over the next eight years.
Emissions are required to fall by 30% and 45% for limiting global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C, respectively the UNEP said.
'A global transformation to a low-carbon economy is expected to require investments of at least $4-6 trillion a year. This is a relatively small, about 1.5-2%, share of total financial assets managed, but significant in terms of additional annual resources needed,' the report said noting that financial systems should see transformation.
A recent report from United Nations Convention on Climate Change also revealed that current commitments will increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels and could put the world on track for around 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the century's end.
By Nuran Erkul Kaya
Anadolu Agency
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