The motivation for U.S. President Donald Trump's potential withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal is to halt Iran's ambitions in gaining more market share in Europe's natural gas market, an expert for Kadir Has University said.
Director of the Center for Energy and Sustainable Development (CESD) from Kadir Has University, Prof. Volkan Ediger said that the U.S. has ramped up its shale gas production from 2007, and after the lifting of the country's hydrocarbon export ban in January 2016, has began to send natural gas via LNG globally.
'Iran's takeover of the European natural gas market is not something that Russia nor the United States wants,' he said.
Currently Russia is the biggest supplier of natural gas to Europe reaching about 40 percent of total consumption.
The world largest gas producer company, Russia's Gazprom announced on Nov. 23, 2017 that the company exported a record 179.3 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe in 2016. As of Nov. 22, 2017, Gazprom delivered 170 billion cubic meters of gas to consumers, exceeding the amount exported in the same period of 2016 by 13.3 billion cubic meters.
The U.S. has also begun sending natural gas in LNG form to Europe in August 2017.
'After countries in Asia and North America (Mexico), countries in Europe collectively accounted for the third-largest share of U.S. LNG exports. LNG imports by several European countries increased in 2017, driven by increased demand primarily from the power generation sector,' according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on March 27, 2018.
The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Turkey and the U.K. were the destinations for the U.S.' LNG in 2017, according to EIA.
Iran has the world's largest natural gas reserves but is unable to develop or generate these resources due to various embargoes including the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015.
Iran holds around 18 percent, or 33.5 trillion billion cubic meters of total proven natural gas reserves globally, ranking first on the list, according to BP's 2017 report.
Ediger argued that because of this, both the U.S. and Russia would use all their resources available in Iran's absence to enhance their own market share.
Following two years of nuclear negotiations, Iran reached a comprehensive nuclear deal with the world's P5+1 powers; U.K., China, France, Russia, the U.S. and Germany in Vienna on July 14, 2015.
Under the JCPOA deal, the U.S. and other world powers agreed to lift some economic sanctions imposed on Iran in return for the latter agreeing to rein in its nuclear program.
Trump has repeatedly called the pact 'one of the worst negotiated agreements' he has ever seen. He has threatened to pull the U.S. out of the deal and has recently said on his Twitter account that he would make an announcement on his decision on Tuesday afternoon from the White House at 11.00 pm Turkish local time ahead of the May 12 deadline.
Another expert from the London School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) contended that in the likelihood of the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Iran and its economy would not be affected.
Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, professor and chair of the Center for Iranian Studies at SOAS, University of London argued that the Iranian economy would not be worse off.
'After all Iran has managed to deal with international sanctions for decades now,' he said.
He anticipates the Trump administration will quit any legal international agreements claiming 'Trump lacks strategic vision'.
'Due to his obvious inability to understand international realities, including the fact that his administration cannot alter anything in the region anymore, I see his administration entirely capable of pulling out of any legal agreement, including the JCPOA,' Adib-Moghaddam said.
Regardless, Iran has signed agreements to develop its oil and gas fields and for new energy facilities with some European state-owned companies.
'The European Union has repeatedly signaled that it will honor its legal obligation under the JCPOA,' Adib-Moghaddam said, which would challenge the U.S. withdrawal.
By Huseyin Erdogan
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr