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Russia's April oil revenue up, exposing shortcomings in oil price cap

- Russia earns estimated €58 billion in export revenue from seaborne oil since EU import bans and imposition of price caps

home > Oil, Eurasia 24.05.2023 14:48

Russia's April oil revenue up, exposing shortcomings in oil price cap

Russia's oil revenue has rebounded in the March-April period of this year from levels seen in January-February, rising to the peak since November 2022 and exposing the failure of price caps, according to an analysis from the Centre for Research in Energy and Clean Air (CREA) on Wednesday.

The price cap policy of $60 per barrel of Russian oil had a good start after it went into effect in December 2022, according to CREA, but it has lost 'traction, integrity, and credibility' as members of the Price Cap Coalition failed to revise price levels and enforce the policy.

'The EU has failed in its commitment to review the price cap every two months to ensure that it stays lower than the average market price,' said CREA's lead analyst and co-author of the report, Lauri Myllyvirta.

According to the analysis, even as the price of Urals crude oil rose above the price cap in April, European-owned and insured tankers continued to transport Russian oil.

'This is a clear indication that the enforcement is not working,' Myllyvirta said.

Russia's oil revenues increased by 14% in April and oil tax revenue also rose by 6% month-on-month in April. However, revenues remained significantly below April 2022 levels when oil prices spiked.

According to CREAʼs Energy Analyst Isaac Levi, 'the Kremlin's tax revenue has closely followed prices for Russian crude oil, highlighting the importance of the oil price cap. The state is also changing its tax regime to diminish the impact of the price cap.'

'Without proactive measures to continuously revise price caps and plug enforcement gaps, we can expect Russia to successfully claw back its revenues,' Levi said.

He added that, 'unless the price cap coalition takes action to lower the price cap level and plug the enforcement gaps, changes to Russia's oil taxation structure will force the price of Russian crude oil closer to international benchmarks, leading to further recovery of Russia's oil revenue and wholesale failure of the price cap system.'

Russia has earned an estimated €58 billion in export revenue from seaborne oil since the imposition of EU import bans and price caps.

CREA's analysis shows that Russia's revenue could be slashed by €22 billion, or by 37%, if the price cap for crude oil is lowered to $30 per barrel and price caps for oil products are revised accordingly.

CREA called for banning tankers that violate price caps from entering EU and G7 ports and territorial waters. It also advocated for payments to be processed only through authorized intermediaries and to ensure that sales contract attestations are done only by pre-approved trading and financial entities to reduce fraudulent documentation.

CREA urged for a reduction in the oil price cap to a level closer to Russia's production costs, which are estimated to be around $15 per barrel.

By Nuran Erkul

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr


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- Oil prices jump nearly $3 as Equinor halts output at Western Europe’s largest field
20.11.2024 Oil

Greenpeace: Taxing oil giants could boost UN Climate Fund by twentyfold

- Greenpeace analysis says taxing oil companies could help cover costs of hurricane, typhoon, and flood-related disasters
19.11.2024 Oil

Oil prices up with geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine

- Demand concerns in China and global oil demand forecasts limit further price rises
20.11.2024 Oil

US oil rig count down by 1 for week ending Nov.14

- Number of US oil rigs fall by 22 compared to one year ago
18.11.2024 Oil

Oil prices set for weekly fall as IEA report eases supply concerns

- International Energy Agency forecasts potential increase in global oversupply this year, supporting downward movement of prices
15.11.2024 Oil

Oil prices down as supply fears ease

- Reports from IEA and EIA highlight rising global oil production and possibility of oversupply, alleviating market concerns
16.11.2024 Oil

US energy agency increases crude oil price forecasts for 2024, 2025

- EIA estimates international benchmark Brent crude to average $80.95 per barrel in 2024 and $77 in 2025
18.11.2024 Oil

Global oil production up by 0.3% in October, IEA reports

- Agency forecasts global oil demand to reach 102.8 million bpd in 2024, 103.8 million bpd in 2025
15.11.2024 Oil

Oil fall ahead of Powell's Economic Outlook Speech

- Oil prices down ahead of Powell's speech, with inflation concerns offset by a drop in US crude stocks
14.11.2024 Oil

Russia to lift ban on gasoline exports

- Energy minister says as prices stable in domestic market, ban on gasoline exports possible to be removed
14.11.2024 Oil

Oil prices up amid Middle East turmoil, US inflation data in focus

- Unrest in Middle East continues to impact oil prices as market players fear global supply disruptions
14.11.2024 Oil

OPEC daily crude output up 1.9% in Oct.

- Global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down by 107,000 bpd, from previous month's assessment
13.11.2024 Oil

Oil prices fall with demand concerns over China's insufficient stimulus plan

- Experts say China's latest stimulus plan falls short in meeting investor expectations, while market players question how new stimulus package will affect oil prices
12.11.2024 Oil

Oil prices fall as Beijing's latest stimulus disappoints investors

- Supply concerns ease as threat of disruption from Hurricane Rafael in US Gulf of Mexico subsides
12.11.2024 Oil

Türkiye denies claims of oil shipments to Israel

- 'Companies transporting oil through BTC pipeline for export to global markets...have respected Türkiye's recent decision not to engage in trade with Israel,' says country's Ministry of Energy
12.11.2024 Oil

US oil rig count remains unchanged for week ending Nov. 8

- Number of US oil rigs down by 15 compared to one year ago
11.11.2024 Oil

Oil prices set for weekly rise amid OPEC+ supply decision, Fed rate cut

- Market players this week mainly focus on US presidential elections and Fed interest rate decision
09.11.2024 Oil

Oil prices down as storm in Gulf of Mexico expected to bypass US coast

- The hurricane, which is gradually weakening, is expected to avoid US coastal states
08.11.2024 Oil

Oil down with low US demand, investors expect US Fed rate cut

- Prospect of increased economic activity in both US and China support upward price movements
07.11.2024 Oil

US crude oil inventories up 0.5% for week ending Nov. 1

- Daily crude oil production falls to around 13.92 million barrels per day
07.11.2024 Oil

Oil prices drop with weak US demand, strong dollar amid election results

- API reports 3.13 million barrels increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, surpassing market expectations of a 1.80 million barrel rise
07.11.2024 Oil

Saudi oil giant Aramco's net income drops 15.3% in 3Q24

- Decline linked to reduced crude oil prices and softer refining margins
06.11.2024 Oil
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Russia's April oil revenue up, exposing shortcomings in oil price cap

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