The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised down the price of Brent crude for this and next year.
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released on Tuesday, for 2023 the EIA forecast that Brent will reach $82.40 per barrel and the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will hit $77.63 per barrel. These figures were $83.99 and $79.41, respectively, in the previous month's report.
For next year, the agency expects Brent crude to average $82.57 per barrel and WTI to average $78.07 per barrel.
According to the report, Brent crude averaged $83 per barrel in November with a decrease of $8 per barrel compared to the previous month. This decrease was largely the result of ongoing concerns around global oil demand growth.
Although crude oil prices declined further during the first week of December, the agency expects upward crude oil price pressures in the coming months as global oil inventories decline in our forecast in the first quarter of 2024.
As the forecast decline in oil inventories is driven in part by the recently announced OPEC+ production cuts, the Brent crude is expected to increase an average of $83 per barrel for all of 2024.
The agency predicts that OPEC+ production cuts will offset lower global demand growth, prevent increases in global oil inventories, and keep Brent crude prices above $80 per barrel next year.
However, despite the expected increases in oil prices, the EIA reduced its forecast for the 2024 annual average crude prices by around $11 per barrel from the previous month's report.
- US crude oil production
Crude oil output in the US is predicted to reach an average of 12.93 million bpd this year, up from 11.91 million bpd last year. Next year, crude oil output in the country is expected to reach 13.11 million bpd.
Global oil production, likewise, is expected to rise from 99.99 million bpd in 2022 to 101.62 million bpd in 2023 and 102.19 million bpd next year.
World oil consumption, meanwhile, is anticipated to increase from an average of 99.15 million bpd in 2022 to 101 million bpd in 2023 and 102.34 million bpd in 2024.
By Firdevs Yuksel
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr