The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised down its 2022 and 2023 forecast for global Brent crude oil prices on Thursday, citing macroeconomic uncertainty and decreasing petroleum demand.
In the October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA revised down the price of Brent crude for 2022 to an average of $102.09 per barrel and American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $95.74 a barrel in 2022. In the report last month, these figures were $104.21 and $98.07, respectively.
For next year, the Agency expects the price of Brent crude to average $94.58 per barrel, and WTI to average $88.58 per barrel.
The EIA said that crude oil prices have been subject to high levels of uncertainty due to geopolitical factors, uncertain OPEC+ production, and concerns that a global recession could reduce crude oil demand.
'We lowered our price forecast for 2023 by $2 per barrel compared with last month’s forecast, which largely reflected a 0.5 million barrels per day reduction in our forecast for global oil consumption in response to a lower forecast for global GDP from Oxford Economics,' it explained.
The EIA noted that the possibility of petroleum supply disruptions and slower-than-expected crude oil production growth continues to create the potential for higher oil prices, while the possibility of slower-than-forecast economic growth creates the potential for lower prices.
- US crude oil production increases
Crude oil output in the US is predicted to average 11.75 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022, up from 11.25 million bpd in 2021.
In 2023, crude oil output in the country is expected to set a record at 12.36 million bpd. The previous record set in 2019 was 12.3 million bpd.
OPEC’s output is estimated to average 34.08 million bpd in 2022 and 34.37 million bpd in 2023.
It predicts that non-OPEC liquids production will be 65.82 million bpd in 2022 and 66.36 million bpd next year.
Thus, global crude oil production will average 99.9 million bpd in 2022 and 100.73 million bpd in 2023.
The agency forecast that global oil demand grew by 2.1 million bpd and will reach 99.55 million bpd at the end of the year and 101 million bpd next year.
By Ebru Sengul Cevrioglu
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr