The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised up the price of Brent crude for this year and next in light of the expected decline in global oil inventories.
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released late Tuesday, the EIA forecast Brent will reach $84.46 per barrel and the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will hit $79.65 per barrel. These figures were $82.62 and $77.79 in the previous month's report.
For next year, the agency expects Brent crude to average $88.22 per barrel and WTI to average $83.22 per barrel.
According to the agency, global oil stocks are likely to shrink as a result of Saudi Arabia's decision to prolong its voluntary 1 million barrel-per-day (bpd) production cut through the end of this year, putting upward pressure on oil prices.
In addition to Saudi output cuts, the EIA also attributes inventory builds next year to slowing oil demand growth and non-OPEC oil production growth.
The price of Brent crude oil will average $93 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, the agency said, warning that the likelihood of continued voluntary production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia would result in some upside risks for oil prices.
Brent will remain above $90 per barrel during the first quarter of next year but will average $87 per barrel over the remaining three quarters of next year.
-US crude oil production increases
Crude oil output in the US is predicted to reach an average of 12.78 million bpd this year, up from 11.91 million bpd last year.
Next year, crude oil output in the country is expected to reach 13.16 million bpd.
In OPEC countries, liquid fuel production is predicted to increase from an average of 34.17 million bpd in 2022 to 33.33 million bpd in 2023 and 33.76 million bpd in 2024.
Likewise, global liquid fuel production is expected to increase from an average of 99.94 million bpd in 2022 to 101.18 million bpd in 2023 and 102.88 million bpd in 2024.
Non-OPEC production is the key driver of world production, expanding by 2 million bpd in 2023 and 1.3 million bpd in 2024, headed by the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana.
This will bring the liquid fuel production of non-OPEC countries to 67.85 million bpd in 2023 and 69.12 million bpd next year.
World liquid fuel consumption, meanwhile, is anticipated to increase from an average of 99.16 million bpd in 2022 to 100.9 million bpd in 2023 and 102.3 million bpd in 2024. China leads non-OECD countries as the driver of this increased consumption.
Oil consumption in these countries is forecast to stand at 55.17 million bpd this year and 56.56 million bpd next year.
In OECD countries, consumption is forecast at 45.8 million bpd this year and 45.7 million bpd next year.
By Sibel Morrow
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr