A new Ethiopia-Eritrea war could trigger 'Africa’s Second World War,' expert warns

- ‘Behind Eritrea-Ethiopia are a number of proxies which will be engaged or pulled into the war, if it erupts,’ says expert

ISTANBUL

Eritrea, a former Italian colony federated with Ethiopia in 1952, fought a nearly 30-year independence war before declaring statehood after a 1993 referendum.

A brief rapprochement that allowed joint use of the Red Sea ports of Assab and Massawa collapsed into the 1998-2000 border war, which killed tens of thousands and left relations frozen for nearly two decades.

Ties improved in 2018 when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed accepted a border ruling, a move that helped earn him the Nobel Peace Prize, but tensions resurfaced after the 2020-2022 Tigray war and have risen again in recent years as Ethiopia renewed calls for sea access, including possible use of Eritrea’s Assab port.

A new war between Eritrea and Ethiopia could draw 10-15 countries from three continents into the conflict and risk becoming “Africa’s Second World War,” echoing how the Second Congo War was dubbed Africa’s World War, Kjetil Tronvoll, a peace and conflict studies professor at Oslo New University College, told Anadolu.

He said the relationship between the two countries began to deteriorate immediately after the 2022 Pretoria Agreement.

“The tension between Eritrea and Ethiopia is at all time high since the outbreak of the 1998-2000 war,” he added.

Shifting alliances, accusations fuel rising tensions

From Asmara’s perspective, President Isaias Afwerki had not achieved his objective in the war on Tigray, “which was to annihilate” the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), according to the expert.

Tronvoll said tensions worsened in 2024 when Ethiopia began pursuing its sea access policy, escalating further by asserting “ownership” over the Red Sea.

He said Ethiopia’s accusations that Eritrea is supporting the Amhara Fano insurgency and colluding with Tigrayan political leaders are directly affecting bilateral relations.

From Ethiopia’s perspective, Tronvoll explained, tensions rose after Addis Ababa accused Eritrea of destabilizing the country and stationing troops on its soil, and escalated last year when the foreign minister sent two letters to the UN accusing Eritrea of backing insurgencies and protesting its soldiers’ presence.

He said Ethiopia intensified its criticism as reports of a rapprochement and alliance between Eritrea and Tigray emerged, submitting a new letter earlier this year with the same accusations and warning that “Ethiopia’s patience was running out.”

According to the expert, Eritrea went from an enemy in 2018 to an ally and military partner during the Tigray war under Abiy’s government, but has now returned to being “an enemy and classified as a hostile nation.”

Risk of wider conflict

Tronvoll warned that renewed conflict could destabilize the Horn of Africa and regions beyond.

“The massive Ethiopian military deployment of forces to the north towards the border to Tigray and Eritrea, in combination with the increasing rhetoric and warnings, is a foreboding for what to come,” he noted.

“Behind Eritrea-Ethiopia are a number of proxies which will be engaged or pulled into the war, if it erupts,” said the expert.

He said regional and international actors could step up diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation, press Eritrea to end interference in Ethiopia’s internal affairs, encourage negotiations over Ethiopia’s use of the port of Assab port, and urge Ethiopia to scale back its military buildup.

*Writing by Mevlut Ozkan