• Leaders in the TPLF party are 'fighting for power instead of addressing urgent issues like displacement and the continued presence of Eritrean forces,' Mulushewa tells Anadolu

• A dispute is also escalating between the Ethiopia's federal government and neighboring Eritrea over Red Sea access, something Mulushewa calls an 'existential issue' for Addis Ababa

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia

The northern Ethiopian region of Tigray is once again at the center of increasing tensions, raising fears of Africa’s second-most populous country being pushed into another conflict, this time with neighboring Eritrea.

The war-ravaged province, which bore the brunt of a devastating two-year civil conflict, now risks becoming a new battleground as recent political and military developments point to a worrying trajectory.

Internal power struggles within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a regional party that once dominated Ethiopian politics, have only deepened instability. One faction in the group has allegedly aligned itself with the Eritrean government, an alliance that many fear could have serious repercussions.

“This internal battle has resulted from the TPLF’s limited resources in comparison to what it once possessed during its leadership of the whole country for nearly three decades until 2018,” says Teklu Gebreyesus, a university instructor in the provincial capital Mekelle. “It is just a power struggle at the expense of the Tigrayan people’s suffering.”

Gebreyesus argues that the 2020-2022 war with the Ethiopian federal government severely diminished the TPLF’s resources. The conflict also had a massive humanitarian toll, leaving some 600,000 people dead and displacing more than 3 million.

Now, some of Tigray’s leaders stand accused of neglecting the region’s pressing humanitarian crisis. Gebreyesus warns that if left unchecked, the region could once again descend into deadly conflict.

Regional analysts caution that the situation not only risks reigniting war between Ethiopia and Eritrea but could also destabilize the wider Horn of Africa. Some warn that external players, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, may seek to exploit the crisis to expand their influence.

Ibrahim Mulushewa, CEO of the Centre for Integrated Regional Studies in Ethiopia’s federal capital Addis Ababa, highlighted the paradox of the situation, in which none of the main actors seem eager for another war but may find themselves drawn into one.

“If you ask me, none of the sides want another full-fledged conflict. They have already paid a high price,” he stated. However, “their intertwined interests make it difficult to completely rule out war.”

Mulushewa added that the crisis could attract external actors, escalating the situation beyond Ethiopia and Eritrea. “A lack of resources and a desire to increase influence may lead these parties to seek external allies. That is why Somalia turns to Egypt, Ethiopia negotiates with Somaliland, and Eritrea aligns with Saudi Arabia,” he explained.

The root of the conflict

In Ethiopia’s brutal civil war in Tigray, the federal military and its allies — including Eritrea — fought the TPLF. Although the Pretoria Agreement of November 2022 established a fragile peace, tensions never fully subsided. Now, internal divisions within the TPLF threaten to reignite conflict.

The internal power struggle bubbled to the surface in August last year, when a key party congress was held without the participation of interim regional President Getachew Reda. Ethiopia’s electoral board refused to recognize the congress, citing the TPLF’s lack of legal status.

The gathering marked a clear split within the party, with one faction led by Getachew and another by longtime TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael. In the following months, Debretsion’s supporters ousted Getachew, though the Ethiopian federal government refused to acknowledge the move. Getachew, in turn, called for federal intervention, accusing Eritrea of backing Debretsion’s faction — claims that Debretsion’s camp denies.

Many Tigrayans remain distrustful of the Ethiopian government, accusing it of failing to uphold its commitments under the peace deal, particularly regarding the withdrawal of Eritrean troops. Debretsion has insisted that Eritrea’s continued military presence is a key factor in the TPLF’s internal split.

Mohammedawel Hagos, a university lecturer and survivor of the Tigray war, expressed deep frustration over the ongoing crisis. “The people of Tigray see this internal division as a source of shame and frustration,” he told Anadolu. “After enduring two years of conflict, it is disheartening to see TPLF leaders fighting for power instead of addressing urgent issues like displacement and the continued presence of Eritrean forces in Tigray.”

Eritrea’s role in the growing crisis

The relationship between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has fluctuated between collaboration and antagonism. After Abiy’s peace efforts ended decades of hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the two countries jointly fought against the TPLF in the 2020-2022 war.

Eritrean forces were accused of committing widespread human rights violations in Tigray, allegations that Asmara denies. While Eritrea has reportedly withdrawn most of its troops, reports suggest that some remain in Tigray, fueling ongoing tensions.

Complicating matters further is Ethiopia’s renewed push to secure direct access to the Red Sea — an ambition that has unsettled Eritrea.

“For Ethiopia, gaining sea access is an existential issue,” said Mulushewa. “Many regional actors now acknowledge that a landlocked country of 130 million people cannot remain without a direct sea outlet.”

Ethiopia’s growing assertiveness for access to the Red Sea has heightened Asmara’s suspicions. Reports that Eritrean intelligence played a role in the internal TPLF coup have only deepened distrust.

Ethiopia and Eritrea’s official stances

Despite rising tensions, Prime Minister Abiy dismissed the likelihood of war with Eritrea in a parliamentary speech in March, emphasizing diplomacy as the preferred approach.

However, analysts argue that Ethiopia’s military buildup near Tigray, coupled with the TPLF’s ongoing internal strife, increases the risk of escalation.

Meanwhile, Eritrea has voiced alarm over Ethiopia’s intentions and has sought closer ties with regional players such as Egypt and Somalia. In October 2024, Eritrean officials held a tripartite meeting with leaders from both countries, signaling an effort to counterbalance Ethiopia’s growing influence.

Satellite imagery and press reports have also indicated increased Eritrean military activity near the Ethiopian border, suggesting that Asmara is preparing for possible conflict — either in response to Tigray’s political turmoil or Ethiopia’s Red Sea ambitions.

Broader regional implications

The last war in Tigray killed an estimated half a million people, created famine-like conditions, and displaced hundreds of thousands. A renewed conflict could be even more devastating.

Beyond Tigray, an Ethiopia-Eritrea war would likely destabilize the entire Horn of Africa, drawing in neighboring countries like Sudan and Somalia, both of which are already facing internal crises.

Major international actors, including the African Union, the UN, and global powers like the US and China, are likely to push for diplomatic solutions. However, their ability to prevent a full-scale war remains uncertain.

“While these organizations have historically brokered peace deals, deep mistrust between Ethiopia and Eritrea, combined with the complex internal politics of Tigray, makes a lasting resolution difficult to achieve,” says Mulushewa.

Deep-seated grievances and shifting alliances make peace uncertain. However, analysts like Mulushewa believe a political settlement is the only way to avoid another devastating war.

“If all sides prioritize trust-building, compromise, and recognize that war is not a solution, we may be able to steer away from conflict,” he said.