- War in Sudan is only ‘going to end through a political process,’ says Sudanese analyst Jihad Mashamoun

- Conflict analyst Moses Chrispus Okello says mediation efforts by African Union could prove to be ‘very important’

ISTANBUL

Recent advances made by the Sudanese army in the ongoing conflict with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have raised questions about the prospect of a possible end to the deadly war ravaging the country for over 18 months now.

Nearly 25,000 people have been killed and over 10 million displaced since April 2023, when a battle for power erupted between Sudan’s army led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the RSF headed by his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

The fighting has spread to at least 13 of Sudan’s 18 states, leading to catastrophic destruction and pushing millions to the brink of famine and death.

The situation on the battleground has changed significantly since late September, when the army launched a sweeping offensive to retake the capital Khartoum, complete with airstrikes and a ground assault.

The army has been able to recapture some key areas of Khartoum, which was largely controlled by the RSF since the war broke out, and Sudanese analysts such as Jihad Mashamoun expect more progress in the coming period.

The army has focused its efforts on Khartoum and other strategic cities along the River Nile, he explained, while delegating control of El Fasher to its allies from the Joint Force of Armed Struggle Movements (JFASM), a coalition of various groups from the Darfur region.

He said the army moved fast to take the city of Khartoum North, or Khartoum Bahri, along with control of the Halfaya bridge and the bridge to the city of Omdurman.

From Omdurman, the army launched an offensive into central parts of Khartoum state, Mashamoun told Anadolu, adding that the military and the JFASM are also moving in Al Jazirah state “to capture Wad Madani and the rest of the region, but their progress there is slow.”

The army aimed to retake Khartoum because it represents “a moral victory” and helps “in maintaining the legitimacy of the cause,” he said.

The army will continue to make progress as it has regional backers who believe that only the military can maintain the unity of Sudan, he added.

On the reasons for the army’s gains, he emphasized the importance of a switch in tactics from defensive to offensive.

This happened, Mashamoun explained, after the JFASM shed their neutrality in April this year and took a position against the RSF.

The army initially was defensive, retreating from areas and allowing the RSF to expand, particularly since it did not have more than 30,000 to 37,000 soldiers in Khartoum and was focused more on replenishing its numbers and supplies, he said.

Political talks key for progress

Despite the transformed military landscape, experts say that political dialogue and negotiations remain crucial for an end to the war.

All major countries and institutions such as the UN have been pressing for concrete talks, especially as the humanitarian situation for millions of Sudanese keeps degrading by the day.

Earlier this month, Türkiye reiterated its call for action to address “the humanitarian situation in Sudan and the attacks against civilians in Al Jazirah state in violation of humanitarian law.”

A Turkish Foreign Ministry statement emphasized the urgent need for a cease-fire “without further delay to restore peace and stability.”

“I can see the conflict is going to continue for a while … It’s going to end through a political process,” said Mashamoun, who holds a doctorate in Middle East Politics from the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter.

He said the army wants negotiations on the basis of the Jeddah Declaration signed in May 2023, which emphasized the protection of civilians among other things and called for the RSF “to withdraw from civilian institutions and homes.”

“The RSF keeps violating the Jeddah Declaration, with its forces hiding in homes and in civilian institutions,” said the Sudanese researcher, also pointing out the lack of a monitoring mechanism to force compliance.

He urged the international community “to stop treating the RSF on an equal footing” with the Sudanese army, saying the latter has greater “institutional discipline compared to the RSF, making it more credible and accountable.”

All international and regional actors also “need to force both sides to sit down together,” he added.

Moses Chrispus Okello, a conflict analyst, questioned the scope of the current peace efforts.

He believes the Jeddah Declaration was “well meaning” but did not “have a good understanding of the nature of the conflict itself.”

“You cannot simply put two fighting forces together without understanding why they’re fighting to start with, and what their visions of a post-conflict situation look like,” Okello told Anadolu.

For him, the push for talks being led by the African Union and Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni could prove to be “a very important aspect of the mediation process.”

As for the battlefield scenarios, Okello said fighting has picked up again in Khartoum and other areas of Darfur after the end of the rainy season.

“There been an uptick in violence … especially in areas around northern and western Darfur. Those are the primary agricultural zones,” he said.

Okello called for tempering expectations for a quick return to the pre-war situation in Khartoum.

“The best the army can do is to edge the RSF around a few key areas, but then it will struggle in others. A few bridges have been liberated, but the RSF is still in different pockets of Khartoum,” he said.

On the operational challenges, he said cleaning out RSF presence from Khartoum “is an extremely difficult task and cannot be done merely by bombardment.”

“You need to very heavy troops deployment and then clean the area out street by street,” he said.

Further complicating the situation is the fact that the RSF is still “hiding inside homes or putting munitions inside civilian areas,” he added, explaining that the army is trying to counter that problem by using drones for precise attacks that minimize casualties.