- The New York Times and Siena College's recent poll shows Donald Trump at 48% and Kamala Harris at 47%
- Tight race alert: Trump edges Harris on economy, but she leads on social issues
- Health and honesty vs. economy and immigration: Debate dynamics to watch on Tuesday night
ISTANBUL
With the US presidential election fast approaching, the highly anticipated debate between former President Donald Trump and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris is set to be one of the defining moments of the race on Tuesday night.
As both candidates prepare for their first head-to-head confrontation, recent poll data revealed a tight and competitive race with voters sharply divided on key issues.
🗳️ Trump, Harris neck and neck ahead of presidential debate
— Anadolu English (@anadoluagency) September 10, 2024
• New York Times: Trump 48% | Harris 47%
• Real Clear Politics: Harris 48.4% | Trump 47.2%
➡️ Polls indicate that voter preferences are being shaped by several critical issues with the economy at the forefront
➡️… pic.twitter.com/id19w9LEFD
Trump leads on the economy and immigration, while Harris has an edge on social issues and personal attributes like honesty and health, according to the poll.
The debate is crucial in potentially swaying undecided voters and shaping the final phase of the campaign. With the race being exceptionally close, the debate's outcome could be decisive in the battle for the White House.
A tight race
As the nation prepares for the Trump-Harris debate, the latest poll shows a tight race between the two candidates.
Harris holds 48.4% of the vote, while Trump has 47.2%, according to data from Real Clear Politics (RCP), based on the average of polls conducted in the country.
Harris leads Trump in critical states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada, while Trump is ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. In Pennsylvania, the race is tied between the two candidates.
Looking at individual key states: In North Carolina, Trump has 47.9% and Harris 47.8%; in Georgia, Trump has 48.3% and Harris 48%; in Arizona, Trump has 48.4% and Harris 46.8%; in Wisconsin, Trump has 47.2% and Harris 48.7%; in Michigan, Trump has 47.1% and Harris 48.3%; in Nevada, Trump has 47.4% and Harris 48%; in Pennsylvania, both candidates are tied at 47.6%.
According to recent poll data from the New York Times and Siena College, Trump and Harris are nearly neck and neck, with Trump at 48% and Harris at 47%.
The poll, conducted from Sept. 3 to 6, shows that despite a challenging summer for Trump following President Biden's withdrawal from the race, his support remains resilient.
The poll's findings reflect a consistent trend since President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race in late July and indicate that voters are still uncertain about Harris' positions, with 28% saying they need to know more about her, compared to only 9% for Trump.
Despite some recent gains, Harris faces challenges, particularly with Latino voters and in proving her ability to deliver change. Only 25% of voters see Harris as representing a significant change from the Biden administration, whereas 53% view Trump as a change candidate.
This virtual tie highlights the closeness of the race, especially in swing states that are expected to determine the outcome of the election. The poll results mirror national sentiment, where both candidates are vying for a slight advantage.
Besides, in an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted in late August, Harris led Trump by 3 percentage points in national polling averages.
However, in the past few weeks, her momentum has stalled slightly, as noted in the report: "We appear to be at the tail end of a honeymoon period for the Harris campaign."
According to the poll, Harris has energized disillusioned voters, with 64% of her supporters stating they "strongly supported her," compared to only 34% who said the same of Biden in July.
Other recent polls reflect a similar tight race, but with more gap or even average:
- Emerson College (Sept. 2 to 4): Harris 45%, Trump 54%
- Quinnipiac University (Sept. 3 to 7): Harris 46%, Trump 49%
- Pew Research Center (Aug. 25 to Sept. 1): Harris 49%, Trump 49%
Trump’s lead in poll results is largely attributed to his ability to solidify and energize his base with consistent messaging on key issues like immigration and the economy.
His appeal as a change candidate contrasts with Harris, who is perceived by some as a continuation of Biden’s policies.
Additionally, Harris' challenges in consolidating support, particularly among Latino voters, and her struggle to address economic concerns has contributed to her stalled momentum.
Trump's high media visibility and lead on economic issues further bolster his standing, while variations in polling results can reflect short-term shifts in voter sentiment.
Key issues driving voter preferences
Polls indicate that voter preferences are being shaped by several critical issues with the economy at the forefront.
The New York Times poll found that 50% of voters believe Trump would do a better job handling the most important issues, compared to 43% who trust Harris on the same.
Trump also holds a 13-point advantage over Harris on managing inflation and the economy, and a 9-point edge on immigration.
However, Harris leads Trump by significant margins on issues, such as abortion (15 points) and race relations (16 points).
Voters are more likely to trust her on health care, where she holds a 10-point advantage.
While these issues are important to many, polling suggests that the economy and immigration remain the top concerns for a majority of Americans.
Harris is also viewed as “too liberal” by 47% of likely voters. Trump's distancing from the controversial Project 2025, a conservative policy blueprint, has not entirely mitigated concerns about his potential presidency.
This dichotomy may influence the debate strategy, with Harris expected to emphasize social issues while attempting to cut into Trump's lead on the economy.
Personal attributes: Harris leads in trust and health
Harris continues to outperform Trump in terms of personal attributes, particularly in terms of honesty and trustworthiness.
In the ABC News/Ipsos poll, Harris was viewed as more honest and trustworthy than Trump by a margin of 43% to 25%.
Harris also holds a significant lead when it comes to physical health and mental sharpness, with 57% of respondents believing Harris is in better physical health than Trump (25%).
These advantages mark a shift in the race's dynamics, with age-based concerns that once plagued Biden now shifting to Trump.
As the debate approaches, questions around Trump's age and fitness for office may come to the forefront more often in the near future, especially with Harris being over 20 years younger than Trump.
Additionally, the New York Times and Siena College poll revealed that attacks on Trump’s character and fitness for office might not be significantly swaying voter opinions.
While 54% of voters view Trump as a risky choice, this is only slightly higher than the 52% who view Harris similarly.
The poll also found that 70% of voters believe Trump has said something offensive, though nearly half of his supporters still plan to vote for him despite this.
In contrast, 94% of Harris’s supporters find Trump's comments offensive, with 78% saying he has offended them recently.
This sharp division in perceptions of Trump's comments could influence voter behavior as the debate approaches.
Debate expectations: High stakes for both candidates
The upcoming debate on Sept. 10 is poised to be a critical juncture in the campaign, with both candidates entering the debate with much at stake.
Harris enters the debate with a slight edge in polling and a boost in enthusiasm following the Democratic National Convention, with her favorability rating having improved since she became the Democratic nominee, with polling analysis website 538's latest average showing her at 46%, just short of her disapproval rating.
In comparison, Trump remains nearly 10 points underwater in terms of favorability, with 53% viewing him unfavorably.
Despite Harris's positive trajectory, expectations for her debate performance are high. The ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 43% of respondents expect Harris to win the debate, compared to 37% who expect Trump to come out on top.
This expectation marks a reversal from previous debates, where Biden was anticipated to perform poorly.
However, the debate's outcome could either consolidate Harris' lead or shift momentum back to Trump.
The debate will be a high-stakes opportunity for both candidates, with Harris aiming to maintain her momentum and Trump seeking to regain his footing.
Debate details
The debate will be moderated by David Muir and Linsey Davis of ABC News and is scheduled to air at 9.00 pm. Eastern Time (0100GMT) on Tuesday.
This debate, which will be the only one scheduled between Harris and Trump, will be conducted with new rules: candidates’ microphones will be muted when not speaking, and no audience will be present.
The format includes two commercial breaks, with each candidate allotted specific time limits for responses and rebuttals.
