ISTANBUL
From Canada in the north to Chile in the far south, countries across the Americas are bracing for the impact of US President Donald Trump’s escalating trade tensions.
Trump has already clashed with Canada and Mexico, exchanging barbs and retaliatory tariffs before agreeing to delay their implementation for at least a month.
The tensions among the three North American nations have prompted other countries in the region, including Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia, to develop their own strategies in response to Trump’s protectionist economic policies.
Mexico
Mexico, one of the US’ largest trading partners, has responded with countermeasures against Trump’s tariffs.
US exports to Mexico totaled $324.3 billion in 2022, while imports reached $454.8 billion, leaving Washington with a $130.5 billion trade deficit, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative.
Trump has frequently cited this deficit, stating: "They have to balance out their trade numbers."
On Feb. 1, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Mexican goods, accusing the country of insufficient cooperation in combating drug trafficking.
But Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum rejects the claim. She quickly responded on X: "We categorically reject the White House's slander of the Government of Mexico for having alliances with criminal organizations, as well as any intention to interfere in our territory."
Sheinbaum instructed Mexico’s economy secretary to implement "Plan B," a set of tariff and non-tariff measures aimed at protecting national interests.
On Feb. 3, Trump suspended the 25% tariffs for 30 days after reaching an agreement with Sheinbaum to strengthen border security.
Steve Hanke, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, told Anadolu that Mexico’s agriculture and auto industries, which are deeply integrated with the US, "will take big hits" from the tariffs.
"As a result, Mexico will probably go into a recession," he warned.
Canada
Canada has also retaliated against US tariff threats.
In a defiant Feb. 1 statement, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said: "Tonight, I am announcing Canada will be responding to the US trade actions, with 25% tariffs against $155 billion worth of American goods."
The US ran an $80.1 billion trade deficit in 2022, with its exports totaling $356.5 billion and imports $436.6 billion.
Trump also paused tariffs on Canada for 30 days on Jan. 3 following a call with Trudeau, during which they agreed to tighten border controls to curb migration and the flow of fentanyl.
Chris Lafakis, a director economist at credit rating agency Moody’s, told Anadolu that the tariffs could have consequences for US energy consumers.
"The US levied tariffs of 25% against Canada and Mexico, with the tariffs against Canadian energy imports levied at 10%," he said.
"The US imports 4.4 million barrels per day of petroleum from Canada, by far more than any other country, and 3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas from Canada, constituting approximately 9% of the US's total supply."
"If all tariffs are passed through to consumers, US oil prices would rise by $2.31 per barrel on average, consistent with the movement in West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices after the announcement," he added.
Brazil
Likewise South America's biggest economy Brazil has signaled it will respond in kind if Trump imposes tariffs.
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva addressed the potential US tariffs at a news conference on Jan. 30: "It's very simple: If he taxes Brazilian products, Brazil will reciprocate in taxing products that are exported from the United States."
"I want to respect the US and for Trump to respect Brazil. That's all," he added.
Roberto Troster, former chief economist at Brazil’s banking federation Febraban, told BNamericas that Trump’s protectionist policies "will have a negative impact on Brazilian exports such as steel, automobiles, and other industrial goods, generating a depreciation of the Brazilian currency against the dollar, and inflationary pressures."
In 2022, the US made $53.8-billion-worth of exports to Brazil and imported $38.9 billion, giving Washington a $14.9 billion trade surplus.
Colombia
Colombia, meanwhile, has opted for a more conciliatory approach with Washington.
Tensions flared on Jan. 26 when President Gustavo Petro barred two US military planes carrying deported Colombians from landing.
In response, Washington threatened to impose tariffs on Colombian exports.
Petro initially vowed to retaliate with tariffs on US goods, but the White House later announced that Colombia had agreed to accept migrants, including those arriving on US military aircraft, "without limitation or delay."
Maria Claudia Lacouture, head of the Colombo-American Chamber of Commerce, warned that US tariffs would have an immediate and devastating impact, CNN reported.
"In coffee alone, more than 500,000 families depend on this sector. In flower farming, thousands of single mothers would lose their livelihood. And we can continue adding sectors that will be affected," she told CNN.
US exports to Colombia totaled $20.8 billion, while imports from Colombia reached $18.5 billion in 2022, resulting in a $2.3 billion trade surplus.
Argentina
Argentina is one of the few countries that could benefit from Trump’s trade policies, given President Javier Milei’s ideological alignment with the current US administration.
Shortly after Milei’s election in November 2023, Trump posted on social media: "You will get your country back on track and truly make Argentina great again!"
Despite their close ties, it remains unclear whether Trump’s policies will actually benefit Argentina, whose economy relies heavily on agricultural and energy exports.
US exports to Argentina totaled $11.4 billion, while imports from Argentina reached $6.4 billion in 2023, leaving Washington with a $5 billion trade surplus.
Amilcar Collante, an economist at La Plata National University, told Argentina Reports that Trump "will probably threaten more tariffs than he will ultimately impose."
Collante argues that inflation could be controlled through unconventional oil extraction and increased exports, which "would give (US Federal Reserve Chairman) Jerome Powell more room for a lax monetary policy and to lower the Fed's rate further than what the market expects."
"It might appreciate the US dollar if it increases the fiscal deficit and the Fed can’t lower its rate; that can complicate things for Argentina," he added.
