Michael Hernandez
14 October 2022•Update: 19 October 2022
WASHINGTON
US President Joe Biden and his senior officials have for over a week grown increasingly furious with Saudi Arabia in a public row over global oil production cuts.
The president is now confronted with the reality of having to follow through on threats to impose consequences on the key US ally and “recalibrate” the bilateral relationship at a tenuous moment in American geopolitics.
Geoffrey Aronson, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute think tank, said the Biden administration has set the stage for grand actions it is ill-prepared to take.
“They've now created an expectation that they have to do something even before they know what they're going to do, which is not the best position to be in,” Aronson said during a telephone interview with Anadolu Agency. “I don't think that they have this grand design on sort of recapitalizing the US-Saudi alliance. I don't get a sense that there's a lot of inner direction here."
“I think they're just hoping that the focus goes away in the next weeks, as I'm sure it will, and they can try to maintain or restore the relationship so that it's out of the papers and off page one,” he added.
Saudi Arabia, which chairs the OPEC+ cartel, voted last week in favor of reducing output by some 2 million barrels per day, and the White House alleged on Thursday that not only did it lend its support but worked diligently behind the scenes to ensure the bloc implemented them, pressuring other nations to fall in line.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the US provided Saudi Arabia with data which he said showed there is no "market basis" for the drastic oil drawdown, adding that Saudi officials were well aware the reduction “would increase Russian revenues and blunt the effectiveness of sanctions.”
The decision to reduce oil production has spiked oil prices and is tantamount to "moral and military support" for Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine, Kirby maintained.
"The country that benefits the most from this 2 million barrel cut is Russia because it does come down to supply and demand, and Russia obviously wants to keep the supply down so that demand drives the price up," he said. "We've been, I think, very candid and very clear about our concerns over this short-sighted regrettable decision."
Oil has remained a major lifeline for the Kremlin as it presses its invasion of Ukraine in defiance of economic and diplomatic pressure from the US and its allies.
The cut also comes just one month before the US holds midterm elections, with Democrats vulnerable to losing at least one chamber in Congress. Higher gas prices at a time of rampant US inflation are not likely to bolster their electoral prospects.
Saudi Arabia has denied its actions were politically-motivated, maintaining it was seeking to ensure market stability.
That explanation is likely correct, but the nadir that has come to define US-Saudi ties under Biden has made it “hard for either” Washington or Riyadh “to ask the other for a favor,” said Aronson.
On Capitol Hill, key Sen. Bob Menendez has vowed to block all arms sales to the Kingdom in retaliation for the oil cuts, while a group of Democrats in the House of Representatives have introduced legislation to withdraw US troops and advanced air defense systems from Saudi Arabia.
While Biden has vocally criticized the Kingdom and warned of impending consequences, he has not telegraphed what form his response will take.
Complicating any action is the US’s prevailing interest in presenting itself as a reliable partner for its Gulf Arab allies at a time when it is confronting a set of challenges around the world that the Biden administration has focused on addressing multilaterally, including Iran and Ukraine. By publicly ratcheting up tensions, “we're really shooting ourselves in the foot here,” said Aronson.
"To the extent that the Americans want to be seen as a reliable ally who are there when problems are encountered and are there through times good and bad, I think the responses of these last few days certainly do not amplify that assessment,” he said.
“If they want to demonstrate that they're a reliable, dependable ally in terms of creating institutions and mechanisms for ensuring Gulf security, these kinds of statements from the president himself, as well as Congress, can only undermine the trust and the faith that outsiders have that when things get tough, the US will be there,” he added.
