BOGOTA, Colombia

Venezuela will elect a new president Sunday or reelect Nicolas Maduro to lead the country after 11 years in power.

Polls will open at 6 a.m. and close at 6 p.m. local time.

Maduro, who is seeking a third term, is trailing opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzales Urrutia. Polls show he has a 40-point lead against the president.

The 61-year-old president was elected in 2013, after the death of his mentor, Hugo Chavez, and won again in 2018 in an election that was dismissed as a sham by the opposition and several countries.

This time, experts say, the opposition has a real opportunity to take the presidency after the country was led for years by a leftist government.

“This election will allow them to try to resolve the political conflict that the country has been experiencing for several years through an electoral contest that will lead to the return of democracy in Venezuela,” Ronal Rodriguez, a professor and researcher at the Venezuelan Observatory, a think-tank at the University of Rosario in Colombia, told Anadolu.

Thousands of demonstrators have taken to the streets in Venezuelan cities, which had not been seen before, to show support for Gonzales Urrutia, a 74-year-old retired diplomat who was virtually unknown months ago, but now represents the resurgent opposition.

“The ruling party did not consider him dangerous and believed that nobody would support him, but today he has had the best polls from the opposition side,” said Rodriguez.

Opposition leaders put Gonzales Urrutia on the ballot after party leader Maria Corina Machado, who won the opposition’s primary last year, was disqualified from the race, as well as Corina Yoris, who was named as her replacement. Machado had the support of massive mobilizations throughout the country.

The opposition promised to "reconcile" the country and return millions of migrants who fled the worst economic crisis in Venezuelan history -- almost 8 million -- according to the UN. About 2,000 continue to leave daily.

“The situation in Venezuela is critical,” said Rodriguez. “It is the only country in the region that has experienced a demographic decline of such magnitude. Those who have returned have ended up leaving again, including young Venezuelans, due to a battered educational system and with a quarter of the population abroad, it still has no way of satisfying the supply of energy and of drinking water of the population.”

The government has cited sanctions imposed by the US in 2019 for the country’s problems. Rodriguez said that although the crisis is the result of poor management by the government, "international sanctions have worsened the situation."

'Fair, free elections'

Washington has maintained talks with Caracas, but the US administration of Joe Biden has warned Maduro about the need to hold a fair vote in exchange for sanctions relief.

The US also wants to avoid a possible new migration wave on its soil if Maduro is reelected, a key issue in the American electoral campaign that will end in November with its presidential election.

When sanctions against Venezuela were announced again in February, Maduro halted flights of migrants deported from the US. The Biden administration has insisted on restoring the flights because they were a tool to deter illegal migration.

“Maduro has used migration as a bargaining chip. Democrats in the United States are relying on the migration issue in the US election, and that has given Maduro a chance to negotiate,” said Rodriguez.

Other countries, including Argentina and Chile, have joined the US in demanding free elections in Venezuela.​​​​​​​

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva also urged Maduro to respect the results of Sunday’s election after Maduro said a victory by Gonzales Urrutia could lead to “a bloodbath” or “a fratricidal civil war.”

“If you don’t want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war, due to the fascists, let’s ensure the greatest success, the greatest victory in the electoral history of our people,” said Maduro.

Lula said he had been “frightened” by Maduro’s remarks.

“When you lose, you go home and get ready to run in another election,” said Lula. “Maduro knows that the only way for Venezuela to return to normality is to have an electoral process that is respected by everyone,” he added, while announcing he would send former Foreign Minister Celso Amorim to act as an observer for the elections.

Venezuela revoked an EU’s invitation in May to send observers for the election.

Experts are questioning if Maduro will respect the results in case of an opposition victory.

The opposition has warned that not recognizing a victory could trigger a violent situation, and said it is willing to defend the results.

The US and the EU are unlikely to recognize an election suspected of fraud, which could lead to more sanctions.

Rodriguez said if sanctions are strengthened, more people will leave Venezuela during the six-months between the elections and when the president-elect takes power in January.

Should Maduro leave office he could also face criminal prosecution by the International Criminal Court, which is investigating him on allegations of crimes against humanity.