ISTANBUL

The Democratic Party lost a lot of votes in last week’s US presidential election by focusing on such issues as gender ideology, global warming and abortion instead of the basic "kitchen table issues” of ordinary Americans, according to a senior pollster.

Brent Buchanan, the founder of Cygnal, a Washington, D.C.-based public opinion polling and analytics firm which has done fieldwork for more than 360 Republican Party campaigns in the US, told Anadolu that Republican candidate Donald Trump boosted his votes by 2% compared to the previous election, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris lost 4% in swing states, 10% in Republican-leaning states and 15% in Democratic-leaning states compared to Joe Biden, the outgoing president.

Describing America as a center-right leaning country, Buchanan said that addressing the cost-of-living crisis and “conservative values” won Trump votes and cost the Democratic Party nearly 10 million voters.

“So if your basic needs are met, if money's not a problem, housing's covered, you get to start thinking about other issues like abortion and climate change and gender ideology, and normal people who are just trying to make ends meet don't really care about any of those. And if they do, they probably disagree with you on them. Black voters moved some to Donald Trump, but really the story of the election was how Latino voters just flocked to Trump. And a lot of it was the economy, but I think what's not being said is how much of it is those social issues, the culture wars that they just do not identify with the Democratic Party on,” he said.

Noting that Latino voters with Catholic and conservative family structures voted for Trump in large numbers due to both the cost-of-living crisis and gender ideology, Buchanan said this was the most important contribution to winning the elections.

-’Both Arab and Jewish votes went overwhelmingly to Trump’

Highlighting that the Biden administration's Gaza policy lost the Democrats votes at key points, Buchanan said that according to his data, Muslims and Hasidic Jews who want peace in Gaza also voted for Trump.

“There's a city right outside of Detroit called Dearborn, Michigan that is very heavily Muslim. It's several hundred thousand in population. And I believe Trump won the plurality of it. And then Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, came in second and Kamala Harris actually came in third in Dearborn, Michigan. And so it's really unique to see that both Arabs and Jews swung heavily to Donald Trump,” he said.

Orthodox Hasidic Jews in the US have expressed their opposition to Israel's attacks on Gaza from day one and have held many protests. Buchanan said that in states such as New York and Pennsylvania, where this Jewish community is densely populated, many votes were cast for Trump.

-Christian Amish vote for Trump

In Pennsylvania, a swing state, the rural, modernity-shunning Christian Amish community had only about 100,000 registered voters until a few years ago, rising to 300,000 in 2024.

"The Amish community, I think, made a massive, massive impact in Donald Trump being able to win the state of Pennsylvania. And almost all of them who chose to vote voted for Donald Trump," said Buchanan.

-Large deviations from the polls and the Musk effect

Buchanan said they were not surprised by the election results and attributed the large deviations seen in some polls to the 2020 elections.

“There was a record turnout in 2020. Kamala Harris (when the official results come out) will probably finish with about 10 million fewer votes than Joe Biden, but that wouldn't be a surprise if not for the 2020 election. It (the 2024 election results) looks more like the 2016 election," he said.

Buchanan said that American billionaire and X owner Elon Musk's support for the Republican candidate after the assassination attempt against Trump in July had a positive contribution reflected in the polls and noted that this success was not about money.

Buchanan highlighted Musk’s “$100 million effort” as the impetus that drove the Republican vote share.

*Writing by Efe Ozkan