Independent voters shift toward Democrats ahead of US midterms: Poll

Independent voters are increasingly leaning toward the Democratic Party ahead of November's US midterm elections, according to Gallup's latest quarterly party affiliation data reported Saturday by the Washington Examiner.

Among respondents in Gallup's second-quarter survey who identified as neither Republicans nor Democrats, 49% said they leaned toward the Democratic Party, compared with 39% who leaned Republican.

The Democratic advantage among independent voters has grown by four percentage points since the first quarter of 2025, when President Donald Trump returned to the White House for his second term.

The shift is also reflected among voters who identify directly with a political party.

Nationwide, 31% now identify as Democrats, up from 28% when Trump took office. A majority of voters continue to identify as neither Republican nor Democrat, although that share has fluctuated during Trump's second term.

The figures give Democrats their largest advantage over Republicans since 2008, according to The New York Times.

The nine-point decline since the fourth quarter of 2022 among independent voters who lean Republican could pose a challenge for Republican candidates seeking to attract centrist voters in competitive races.

Trump's approval rating has steadily declined during his second term, adding to Republican concerns ahead of the midterms.

Although Trump campaigned heavily on cost-of-living pressures that emerged under former President Joe Biden, inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target since the conflict in Iran began in February.

Voters have increasingly pointed to tensions in the Middle East and higher costs linked to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as reasons for withdrawing support from Trump.

Republicans are also hoping that prominent socialist figures in the Democratic Party, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Abdul el Sayed, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Michigan, could help them in closely contested races.

The Republican National Committee is holding a campaign-style convention in Texas this week to promote what it describes as a contrast of "common sense versus crazy."

Gallup's survey was based on a combined random sample of more than 3,000 US adults and has a margin of error of two percentage points.