NEW YORK

A new survey suggests Muslim voters in key swing states are leaning toward Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein in the upcoming US presidential election, a shift that could impact the race's outcome.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) conducted the survey between Aug. 25 and 27, finding that Stein outperforms her Democratic and Republican rivals in three of six critical swing states.

The poll, which surveyed 1,115 registered Muslim voters nationwide, shows Stein leading among Muslim voters in Arizona with 35%, Michigan with 40%, and Wisconsin with 44%.

Candidates supported by muslims in poll ⤵️

Kamala Harris: %29.4
Dr. Jill Stein: %29.1
Donald Trump: %11.2

New survey suggests Muslim voters in key swing states are leaning toward Green Party candidate Dr. Stein in the upcoming US presidential election https://t.co/xKuaSXr3Te pic.twitter.com/cYIlzqaf9f

— Anadolu English (@anadoluagency) September 17, 2024

Stein’s Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, leads among Muslim voters in Georgia with 43% and Pennsylvania with 37%, while Republican candidate Donald Trump trails, only securing the most Muslim support in Nevada at 27%.

“Have you seen the latest CAIR poll? We leading with Muslim American voters by at least 5 points in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin!,” Stein wrote on social media.

Criticism over Gaza war

Muslim voters' growing support for Stein is viewed as a message to Democratic and Republican candidates over their continued backing of Israel amid the ongoing Gaza war, with both parties facing criticism from the community.

“Candidates running for office cannot afford to overlook the issues that matter most to Muslim Americans. Ignoring this community or taking their votes for granted could be a costly mistake, particularly in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, where elections are often won by narrow margins,” said CAIR’s Government Affairs Director Robert McCaw.

The overall survey shows Harris leading slightly among Muslim voters nationwide, with 29.4%, while Stein closely follows at 29.1%. Trump trails at 11.2%, and The People’s Party candidate Dr. Cornel West received 4.2% of the Muslim vote.

Gender and ethnic differences were also notable in the survey. Harris is favored by 29% of Muslim men, while 34% of Muslim women support Stein.

Harris enjoys strong backing from Black Muslim voters, with 55.3% supporting her. Stein is preferred by 32.7% of white, Arab, and Turkish Muslim voters.

However, 16.5% of respondents said they were undecided about their vote.

The US has nearly 2.5 million Muslim voters, and despite widespread dissatisfaction, over 90% plan to vote in the Nov.election, according to the survey.

The presidential election's outcome will hinge on a handful of swing states, including Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.

Electoral votes

With the Electoral College system, where delegates determine the winner, a candidate must secure 270 out of 538 electoral votes to win the presidency. The winner-takes-all system in most states means even a slight lead can result in all of a state’s electoral votes.

The close race between Harris and Trump has drawn particular attention to these states. According to Real Clear Politics, Trump leads Harris by less than 1% in five of the seven key swing states.

Nationally, Harris has 48.4% support compared to Trump’s 46.9%, based on a poll average from Aug. 22-27.

While inflation, economic issues, abortion, and border security dominate the concerns of voters nationwide, foreign policy, particularly the US stance on Gaza, is a significant issue for Muslim voters.

Michigan, with its large Muslim and Arab population and its 15 electoral votes, is a key state where this issue is likely to have an impact. In the February primaries, 13% of Michigan voters cast “uncommitted” votes in protest of President Joe Biden’s Gaza policy.

While many of these voters are critical of both major parties, they are closely watching Harris’s stance on Gaza to determine whether to support her.