- 'The plan has been in discussion for decades ... The idea is to get rid of the Palestinians and then it's all greater Israel,' says senior Middle East Institute fellow Mirette Mabrouk
- 'Both countries are very dependent on the US for economic and military aid and their own security, so it seems unclear how much Trump might want to push them,' academic Waleed Hazbun tells Anadolu
ISTANBUL
A recent proposal by US President Donald Trump to displace Palestinians from Gaza and relocate them to neighboring countries such as Jordan and Egypt has ignited widespread concerns among political analysts and Middle Eastern leaders over potential ethnic cleansing.
In a statement last week, Trump referred to Gaza as a “demolition site” and expressed his intention to “just clean out” the Palestinian enclave, suggesting the resettlement of Palestinians in Jordan and Egypt — a controversial proposal that was met with immediate rejection from both nations.
On Monday, Trump reiterated his stance, claiming to have spoken with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi about the matter. Egyptians officials, however, have denied any such conversation between the two leaders.
According to Mirette Mabrouk, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, Trump's contacts show he is "extremely serious" in his intentions. "The president of the United States does not make friendly chat calls to kings and presidents," she emphasized.
Mabrouk was also referring to a separate call by Trump to Jordan’s King Abdullah II, which she said was a clear demand and signaled Washington’s intentions to apply significant pressure on regional leaders.
These developments come at a "peculiarly delicate and sensitive time" in US-Middle East relations, she said, highlighting the difficult choices facing Jordan and Egypt. "What they have to fear by saying yes is even worse than what they have to fear by saying no," she said.
What are Trump’s plans for Gaza?
Trump's proposal has once again drawn attention to Israel's longstanding plans for Gaza, particularly as far-right Israeli leaders have often openly advocated for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in the enclave and the construction of settlements.
Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich confirmed Monday that he was collaborating with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to devise a plan in line with Trump’s vision for Gaza.
Mabrouk stressed that the idea of relocating Palestinians is not a new one. "The plan has been in discussion for decades. It would be the position of the far-right in Israel. The idea is to get rid of the Palestinians and then it's all greater Israel."
According to Mabrouk, the far right's ultimate goal is to expel as many Palestinians as possible from Gaza, pushing them into neighboring Egypt or, should Egypt refuse, into the Negev Desert or the occupied West Bank.
"As far as the Israeli far right is concerned, they now claim they have a 'biblical' right to the West Bank," she added.
Waleed Hazbun, a professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Alabama, suggested that Trump’s idea could be used as a bargaining chip, though its broader implications remain unclear.
"The notion that the move 'could be temporary' or 'could be long-term' is very troubling, as is his (Trump) saying, 'we just clean out that whole thing,' especially as, in the past, both him and his son-in-law Jared Kushner have discussed the idea of real estate development in Gaza," he said.
Economic pressure and sanctions
Experts have also pointed out the significant economic pressures facing Jordan and Egypt, both of which rely heavily on US aid and assistance.
"Both countries are very dependent on the US for economic and military aid and their own security, so it seems unclear how much Trump might want to push them," said Hazbun.
Mabrouk said that while pressure is likely to be enormous, it would vary from country to country. "Jordan is under immense pressure because Jordan does get a lot of aid from, from the US, and Jordan has refugees, and that money often goes towards the refugees," she said.
However, she added that Egypt's aid package is often misunderstood. “What it gets is about $1.3 billion in foreign military financing ... what you essentially get is a coupon that they can spend on American-made armaments, so the money goes straight back into the US,” she clarified.
Trump’s proposal comes at a time when nearly all foreign aid has been frozen, with the exception of military assistance to Egypt and Israel. Mabrouk noted that the pressure on Egypt is high as the country’s economic situation is in a "very delicate state," adding that the US could impose tariffs and sanctions as a form of leverage.
Political instability
Experts also raised alarms over the potential for political instability in the region if Trump’s proposal were to move forward.
Hazbun warned that both Jordan and Egypt have little leverage to resist the US, given their reliance on American support. "Egypt and Jordan don’t have much else to give Trump nor much leverage with the US except the fear of political instability that such a forced deportation would have in their counties and beyond," says Hazbun.
With blocs like the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation issuing statements strongly rejecting any calls for displacement, Hazbun pointed out that the situation could be influenced by other regional powers, particularly Saudi Arabia.
"It might come down to Saudi Arabia and what Crown Prince MBS (Mohammed bin Salman) considers tolerable or not," said the analyst, suggesting that Trump’s proposal could be an indirect attempt to pressure Gulf and other Arab states into supporting US-Israeli plans for Gaza and the West Bank.
Ethnic cleansing and the Nakba
Analysts have expressed concerns that Trump’s plan could be viewed as a form of ethnic cleansing, with some drawing parallels to the Nakba, the 1948 displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.
Mabrouk highlighted the dire consequences of such a move, stating that any Palestinians displaced now would likely never be allowed to return to Gaza.
"There is no doubt whatsoever that any Palestinians leaving will never be allowed to return," she said. "It isn't a matter of long term or short term, and the Palestinians pushed out of their homes now ... will meet the same fate as those Palestinians pushed out of their homeland in 1947, 1948, and in 1956 and then 1967," Mabrouk concluded.
“It's not a guessing game. There is no long term or short term. Any action taken now will be permanent.”
Hazbun similarly pointed out that neither Jordan nor Egypt are unlikely to accept large numbers of displaced Palestinians, primarily for internal political and security considerations.
Both countries "prefer not to be implicated in what could be viewed as ethnic cleansing," he said.
