• While a temporary rapprochement between Washington and Moscow is theoretically possible, the likelihood of a sustained division between Russia and China remains minimal

The author is a research fellow at the Caucasian Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies (QAFSAM).

ISTANBUL

Since US President Donald Trump's administration took office, one of its key foreign policy objectives has been to re-engage with Russia to isolate China. This strategy is inspired by the Cold War-era triangular diplomacy pioneered by President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, which sought to improve relations with China to contain the Soviet Union.

The so-called "reverse Kissinger" strategy aims to cultivate closer ties with Russia to counterbalance China's growing influence. However, today's international system and China-Russia relations differ significantly from those of the Cold War era. In this context, the Trump administration's reverse Kissinger strategy appears more like wishful thinking than a comprehensive, actionable policy. Several factors undermine the viability of this approach.

Evolving China-Russia relations

One major obstacle is the fundamentally different nature of China-Russia relations today compared to the Cold War era. During the Cold War, friction between the two countries stemmed from several factors, including ideological competition and personal rivalries between leaders. For example, the 1960s schism between Mao Zedong and Nikita Khrushchev was exacerbated by Khrushchev's policy of 'peaceful coexistence' with the US, which Mao viewed as a betrayal of communist ideals. This ideological rift created deep mistrust between Beijing and Moscow.

In contrast, the modern relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping is marked by a strong personal rapport and shared strategic goals. Since 2013, the two leaders have met over 42 times [1]—a testament to the depth of their partnership. Both countries are committed to a multipolar world and reducing US hegemony. This alignment significantly reduces the likelihood of a major rift between Russia and China that the United States could exploit.

Absence of ideological competition

Another key difference lies in the absence of ideological rivalry between Russia and China today. During the Cold War, both nations vied for leadership of the global communist movement, intensifying their geopolitical rivalry. Today, however, their cooperation is rooted in pragmatic mutual interests rather than ideological alignment. Both countries are united in their opposition to US dominance and are actively working to develop alternative global institutions, such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), to challenge Western-led frameworks. This shared vision reduces ideological barriers and fosters closer collaboration, making it difficult for the United States to drive a wedge between the two powers.

Geopolitical realities further complicate the reverse Kissinger strategy. In regions where their interests intersect, Russia and China have adopted shared strategic roles rather than competing. For instance, in Central Asia, China primarily acts as an economic power, investing in infrastructure through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, while Russia functions as the regional security guarantor. Both countries seek to maintain stability and limit Western influence in the region.

Beyond Central Asia, this cooperative approach extends to other areas of strategic interest. Russia focuses on Eastern Europe and its near abroad, while China concentrates on East Asia and the Indo-Pacific. Their complementary goals minimize the potential for conflict and increase their collective ability to challenge US interests globally. Moreover, both countries perceive the US as a common threat. This shared perception encourages closer coordination to divide US strategic focus between Europe and Asia, preventing Washington from concentrating its resources on either front to curb their ambitions

Economic interdependence and political realities

Economic ties between Russia and China further undermine the feasibility of a reverse Kissinger strategy. Since the onset of Western sanctions following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, Moscow has increasingly turned to Beijing for economic support. Bilateral trade between the two countries has grown substantially, reaching approximately $245 billion [2] annually by 2024. China has become a crucial market for Russian energy exports, while Russia relies on Chinese industrial goods and technology.

By contrast, US-Russia trade remains relatively low, amounting to just $3.5 billion as of 2024 [3]. The structural limitations of the US economy, including its status as a major energy exporter, make it unlikely that Washington could offer Russia comparable economic benefits. Even in the hypothetical scenario where Moscow pivots toward the US, economic realities would constrain the depth of any potential partnership.

Finally, domestic political factors make a reverse Kissinger strategy even less likely. Both Putin and Xi have long-term ambitions that extend well beyond the tenure of any US administration. Trump's presidency, even if he serves a final term, would end in 2029, while both Putin and Xi have taken steps to maintain tenure.

Given these dynamics, neither leader has an incentive to engage in risky geopolitical maneuvers that could be reversed by a subsequent US administration. This long-term perspective fosters strategic patience and reinforces their commitment to a stable bilateral relationship.

Myth over reality

In summary, the reverse Kissinger strategy faces insurmountable challenges rooted in the transformed international landscape. The deepening strategic partnership between Russia and China, the absence of ideological competition, complementary geopolitical interests, economic interdependence, and the long-term political calculations of their leaders all render the US approach impractical.

While a temporary rapprochement between Washington and Moscow is theoretically possible, the likelihood of a sustained division between Russia and China remains minimal. The reverse Kissinger strategy, therefore, is more myth than reality in the context of today's complex and multipolar world order.

[1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/analyzing-latest-xi-putin-meeting-and-chinas-belt-and-road-forum

[2] https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/united-states/69447/the-flaw-in-trumps-genius-china-strategy

[3] https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/united-states/69447/the-flaw-in-trumps-genius-china-strategy

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.