Gizem Nisa Demir
30 January 2026•Update: 30 January 2026
ISTANBUL
US President Donald Trump is again weighing military action against Iran despite US and Israeli intelligence assessments indicating Tehran’s nuclear program poses no immediate threat, according to officials.
American and European officials cited by The New York Times in a special report said that six months after US airstrikes in June, there is little evidence Iran has resumed high-level uranium enrichment or moved toward building a warhead, raising questions about the timing and motive behind renewed threats.
Trump last June warned Iran that if it did not “make peace,” “future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier,” and he repeated that warning this week while pressing Tehran to return to negotiations.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the president’s position has not changed, stressing that “the world’s number one state sponsor of terror can never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon,” and added that Trump “means what he says.”
The Pentagon has reinforced the warning with a large military buildup in the Middle East, including the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, fighter jets, missile defenses, and tens of thousands of US troops, even as senior officials privately acknowledge uncertainty over how a renewed conflict might unfold.
Pentagon buildup, intelligence doubts fuel debate
The Pentagon has backed the rhetoric with a major troop and naval buildup in the Middle East, even as senior advisers acknowledge uncertainty about what escalation could bring.
Speaking on Wednesday at a Senate hearing in Washington, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the consequences of a collapse of Iran’s leadership remain unclear.
“That’s an open question,” he said, noting power is split between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
According to the report, intelligence agencies believe Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium struck last year remains buried and inaccessible, making rapid weapons production unlikely, though Tehran has been digging deeper at existing nuclear sites near Natanz and Isfahan.
Democratic lawmakers have voiced concern over the approach, with Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado saying: “What we need is a permanent and verifiable agreement to prevent Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon,” rather than threats of force.
