• ‘It might … be a little easier to deal with Trump for the Iranians,’ according to political scientist Mehran Kamrava
• Gulf states will be ‘trying to calculate which candidate … would be more comfortable putting pressure on Israel,’ says Anna Jacobs of the International Crisis Group
• Gulf nations have ‘prepared themselves to be open to any administration,’ says Middle East academic Mahjoob Zweiri

ISTANBUL 

As a belligerent Israel drags the entire Middle East into a spiral of death and violence, much is riding on who prevails in the race for power playing out in Washington.

Either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will soon be in a position to put an end to Israel’s slaughter of tens of thousands in Gaza and Lebanon – or at least stop US funding and weapons that are fueling a fire threatening to consume the entire region.

Given the track records of Republican and Democrat administrations, analysts say regional countries such as Iran and the Gulf states have their preferences for the next US president, but expectations will be tempered and the focus primarily on strategic planning.

US election: Who do Iran and Gulf states want in the White House?

Iran's concern is who among Trump or Harris would be easier to deal with, while Gulf states are gauging who ‘would be more comfortable putting pressure on Israel,’ say analysts ⤵️

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Iran’s interests

With decades of hostilities and strained ties, Iran in particular will not be expecting any immediate positive change in US policy, with the bigger question being which one of Trump or Harris would be easier to deal with for Tehran.

When Trump was battling Hillary Clinton, Iranian officials saw him as someone more open to deals, especially with his business background, according to Saeid Jafari, an Iranian Middle East analyst.

“However, after four years of Trump’s presidency, senior officials in the Iranian government are now more likely to welcome a victory for Kamala Harris,” Jafari told Anadolu.

Nothing in international relations can be predicted with certainty, he continued, but a Trump win would likely take chances of de-escalation between Iran and the US close to zero.

On the flip side, even a Harris victory is no guarantee of a fresh start, he added.

“However, if Harris wins, there may be cautious optimism that the White House will at least aim to prevent further escalation between Tehran and Washington,” he said.

“In contrast, the most likely scenario of a Trump victory would be a significant increase in tensions between Iran and the US.”

Jafari’s assessment is challenged by Mehran Kamrava, a political scientist at Georgetown University in Qatar, who also directs the Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies.

From Iran’s perspective “it doesn’t really matter who the president is … (but) in some ways, it might actually, ironically, be a little easier to deal with Trump,” according to Kamrava.

Trump took “tremendous pride” in his decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), he added, while his successor Joe Biden has done nothing to change that although “he hasn’t necessarily called his policy maximum pressure.”

“Harris, just like Biden, has a much more ideological approach to global politics, and sees a particular role for American foreign policy,” said the academic.

“Trump is much more transactional and, in some ways, far less ideological. Trump is guided by the principle of self-aggrandizement.”

On Israel trying to drag the US into a wider Middle East war, Kamrava said Trump could push back against that since he has “shown an aversion to military conflict and does not want the US involved in these forever wars.”

Gauging the Gulf

For Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and other Gulf nations, there is “not a huge difference” between Trump and Harris, according to Anna Jacobs, senior analyst for Gulf states at the International Crisis Group.

“All of the Gulf states have good relations and good political ties with members of both sides of the political spectrum in the US,” she told Anadolu.

“They really would prefer the candidate that would be more supportive of bilateral relations, that would probably increase weapons sales, focus on relations with their specific country, and especially on the security front.”

Gulf states “are feeling more threatened than usual because of the regional security environment right now,” according to Jacobs, and will be “trying to calculate which candidate and which administration would be more comfortable putting pressure on Israel.”

All of them would want to work on security, enhancing economic cooperation and investments, while UAE and Saudi Arabia in particular are focused on advanced tech cooperation with the US, she said.

Mahjoob Zweiri, a professor of Middle East politics at Qatar University, also believes that Gulf states are “flexible” when it comes to ties with US administrations.

“They prepared themselves to be open to any administration. If Harris comes, they have already established good ties with Democrats. If Trump comes, they already have a history of relations they can build on,” he told Anadolu.

While Saudi Arabia has historically been in favor of Republicans, he added, Arab countries in general handle politics with the US on a day-to-day basis.

At this time of heightened tensions, Gulf countries would want a US government that could “stop the war immediately and go for a diplomatic peaceful solution,” according to Zweiri.

“What they see now is a very hesitant administration that basically believes what the Israelis say without accepting any kind of second view, and basically approving this ongoing genocide (in Gaza),” he said.

Trump has been saying he will stop the war but that “is not necessarily what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants,” he said.

Harris has mentioned plans to end the violence “but in reality she’s also hesitant like Biden,” Zweiri added.

The academic, however, foresees a change in US’ influence and standing in the region because of its “failures in the international arena.”

“Regardless of who’s coming to power, I think none of them will be capable to bring back the strength, the presence, the impact of the US,” he said.

There will be a lack of leadership and “less ability to change the current dynamics,” he warned.