• ‘Trump, for all his unpredictability, never started new wars … It is Harris’ impulsiveness that concerns some,’ says Russian columnist Andrey Sitov

• Trump considers China as the US’ main rival and could try to pull Russia away from Beijing by offering certain concessions, says analyst Konstantin Kalachev

MOSCOW

Russia is among the countries where the result of any US presidential election holds the most significance, and the current race playing out between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is no different.

If the Western narrative is taken at face value, then all Moscow would be doing right now is keeping its fingers crossed for a Trump victory and an end to the Democratic administration running Washington since 2020.

Russian analysts challenge that view as far from reality, emphasizing that officials in Moscow believe that the American establishment’s “unfriendly” stance towards Russia is unlikely to shift, regardless of who takes over the Oval Office.

Officially, Moscow has maintained its distance, refusing to openly endorse either candidate, a decision analysts say could be rooted in the fallout of the 2016 US election, when Russia was accused of interference in favor of the eventual victor Trump.

At the time, there was a storm of allegations that Trump colluded with Russian officials, but the ensuing Robert Mueller special counsel investigation found no evidence of any direct coordination between the Trump campaign and Moscow.

In September this year, President Vladimir Putin made a teasing comment about Russia wanting Harris to win, citing the Democrat candidate’s “infectious” laugh as the reason for Moscow’s preference.

That drew a statement from Washington asking Putin to stop commenting on the race, while the Kremlin and top Russian officials clarified that it was just a joke.

View from Moscow

Russian columnist Andrey Sitov pointed out that the Democrats and Republicans have a clear divergence in certain crucial areas.

For Harris, he said the American vice president “has the frenzy of a neophyte, ready to press any buttons to prove her suitability for the post” of president.

Even President Joe Biden, despite his age and experience, was led to believe that a nuclear war with Russia could be a reality, according to journalist Bob Woodward’s recent book, Sitov added.

The US political elite’s position, he said, is that they are willing to sow any sort of chaos in the world, just not when their own candidate is in office.

“That’s the mindset. Meanwhile, Trump, for all his unpredictability, never started new wars and advocates for nuclear security. It is Harris’ impulsiveness that concerns some,” he told Anadolu.

Sitov said he is personally curious to see whether Trump could follow through on his promise of ending the Ukraine war, something the Republican claims he can do before his inauguration.

Political analyst Konstantin Kalachev explained that Trump did not fully meet Russian expectations in his first term from 2016 to 2020, but Moscow remains hopeful for a more significant potential understanding this time around.

Trump considers China, not Russia, to be the main geopolitical competitor of the US, and may try to pull Moscow away from Beijing’s influence by offering certain concessions, he said.

Another factor, according to Kalachev, would be the scandal about the dealings of Hunter Biden, the son of President Biden, with Ukraine.

Hunter served on the board of Burisma, a Ukrainian natural gas company, while Biden was vice president under Barack Obama and involved in US policymaking on Ukraine.

That sparked concerns over a conflict of interest, with critics saying Biden used his influence to protect his son and Burisma.

One key event was Biden’s push for the removal of Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin, who was investigating corruption claims, including at Burisma.

Biden’s supporters argue that his actions were part of broader US policy and supported by international entities like the EU, who saw Shokin as ineffective against corruption.

Trump, according to Kalachev, “has not forgotten Ukraine’s role in failing to expose Biden during the last election.”

Trump equals escalation?

Kalachev also believes Trump’s stance on Europe aligns with Russian interests, while his past criticism of NATO and preference for bilateral deals over multilateral cooperation also fits Moscow’s view on things.

Trump’s position on cooperation with Europe has been marked by skepticism towards institutions like NATO and the EU. During his presidency, he criticized European nations, particularly Germany, for not contributing enough to defense spending, even going as far as calling NATO “obsolete” at times.

“But on the other hand, Trump is emotional, impulsive and unpredictable. Harris is much more predictable, and that’s a plus,” he said.

Political analyst Viktor Kozyrev disagrees with the assessment that Trump would be the better choice for Moscow, warning that a victory for the Republican “might escalate the conflict with Russia.”

As for the official Russian line, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has repeatedly urged the US to stop using Russia in its internal politics, remarking that both sides in American politics compete to appear tougher on Moscow.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has also downplayed the importance of the Nov. 5 election, stressing that US policy toward Russia would remain unchanged regardless of who wins because it is determined by deep-seated forces in the American establishment.