US will lose millions of jobs if Trump elected: study

By Ovunc Kutlu

NEW YORK

The U.S. could lose millions of jobs if Republican candidate Donald Trump is elected president, according to a study released Monday.

Trump's proposal to eliminate existing U.S. international trade agreements, renegotiating NAFTA and imposing a 35 percent and 45 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and China, respectively, "would plunge the U.S. economy into recession and cost more than 4 million private sector American jobs," said the study by the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.

"If implemented, these proposals would provoke retaliation by the U.S. trading partners, unleashing a trade war," the institute warned.

The rise in tariffs on Mexico, China and the U.S.'s other trading partners would directly impact the American engineering, machinery, information technology and aerospace sectors that are export-dependent, and indirectly affect wholesale and retail distribution, according to the study.

During a speech last week in New York, Trump said NAFTA, trade deal with South Korea, and Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) have a negative impact on U.S. employment and that he would keep his country out of the latter.

The TPP, which President Barack Obama signed earlier this year, is currently pending for approval in Congress.

The Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, who also opposes TPP, has trade policies that would be costly for the economy, although not as damaging as Trump's proposals, the study noted.

If Clinton is elected, the institute estimates the $130 billion in gains for the U.S. economy in the TPP would go down the drain.

"Hillary Clinton ... has expressed skepticism about trade but in effect represents stasis," the study noted. "She has made enforcement of existing trade laws, aimed at preventing abuses by trading partners."

Clinton said last month that she wants to create a new chief trade prosecutor position that would report directly to the U.S. president and be tasked with monitoring the implementation of trade deals with American partners.