Will Trump's latest tariff threat against Iran work?

• Experts say impact depends on enforcement, loopholes
• 'Iran does all it can to get around sanctions,’ says George Washington University professor Hossein Askari

ISTANBUL

US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran has drawn sharp reactions from Tehran’s key trade partners, but experts say the move is unlikely to deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s already strained economy.

"Effective immediately, any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America," he wrote on his social media network Truth Social earlier this month. "This order is final and conclusive."

While Washington has yet to release detailed guidance on how the tariffs would be implemented or enforced, the announcement has already prompted criticism from China and Russia, two of Iran’s most important economic partners.

“Tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and coercion and pressure cannot solve problems,” said Liu Pengyu, the spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, on American social media network X, adding that Beijing would “take all necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian later said Beijing opposes interference in Iran’s internal affairs and supports stability in the country.

China is Iran’s largest trading partner, followed by Iraq and the United Arab Emirates.

Russia also condemned the proposal, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova describing the sanctions as an attempt to “blackmail” Iran’s trade partners, arguing that Western sanctions are “illegal” and primarily harm ordinary Iranians.

“Foreign forces hostile to Iran are attempting to exploit mounting social tensions to destabilize and destroy the Iranian state,” Zakharova said, accusing the West of using “color revolution” tactics.

Limits of added pressure

Trump’s latest warning comes on top of years of US-led sanctions that already restrict Iran’s access to global banking systems and oil markets.

Even when Iran succeeds in exporting oil, access to hard currency is often delayed or frozen abroad. In 2025, the International Monetary Fund projected a decline of roughly 300,000 barrels per day in both oil production and exports as of May.

Iran’s economy is already struggling. The recent protests coincided with a sharp depreciation of the Iranian rial, which fell from around 817,000 per US dollar early last year to about 1.42-1.47 million on the parallel market by late 2025.

Against that backdrop, economists question how much additional pressure the proposed tariffs could realistically generate.

"The impact depends on ways the affected countries can get around the tariffs and on the degree of enforcement," Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, professor of economics at Virginia Tech University, told Anadolu.

He suggested the move may signal a preference for economic pressure over military escalation, which Trump has also raised in recent weeks.

He said that if Iran's trade partners cut formal trade ties, it could affect Iran’s economy negatively – although enforcement is a challenge.

"Private traders may find a way to reroute their trade through other countries that do not export to the US," he added.

‘Iran does all it can to get around sanctions’

Hossein Askari, professor emeritus of international business and international affairs at George Washington University, was even more skeptical.

“Iran does all it can to get around sanctions – smuggling, rerouting through third countries and everything in between,” he said. "Countries that trade with Iran do the same. Any country that already trades with Iran is quite fleet-footed."

Askari said the tariffs could marginally raise prices and contribute to shortages inside Iran, but would not achieve Washington’s broader political aims.

"But the question is: will this affect the regime’s policies so as to improve daily lives? Clearly not, but it will increase the hardship on all Iranians," he said.

"The only thing that would bring immediate relief for Iranians is a lifting of all sanctions," he added.