By Kasim Ileri & Esra Kaymak
WASHINGTON
New friction between Saudi Arabia and Iran sparked by the execution of a Shia cleric is not expected to rise to a level of military conflict, according to close observers.
The kingdom’s decision to execute Nimr Baqir al-Nimr was denounced in Iran as protesters raided the Saudi embassy in Tehran and set it on fire.
A day later, Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties with Iran following attacks on its missions in Tehran and Mashhad and ordered its diplomats to leave Iran within 48 hours. It also halted all flights to and from Iran.
The moves and countermoves of Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia - fierce regional rivals who support opposing sides of ongoing conflicts in Syria and Yemen – has created an atmosphere in which some pundits believe a military confrontation may be in the cards.
But the Pentagon thinks differently.
One agency official said the U.S. has not detected any abnormal military moves in the Gulf that could be interpreted as a military faceoff between the two countries.
“There is no reason to expect a military move either,” the official told Anadolu Agency on condition of anonymity. “It is all rhetoric I don’t think there will be a military dimension of this tension,” he added.
The official noted that the U.S. has extensive plans covering all contingencies in the region but none are currently underway. U.S. military assets in the Persian Gulf are maintaining their ordinary posture, he said.
Middle East experts in Washington also agree that squabble does not portend a direct confrontation but it does contain overtones that suggest Saudi resentment with the U.S.
From the time the Obama administration sought to reach a deal with Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program, Washington took a delicate approach with the Saudi rival, some say, which in turn angered Riyadh.
Philip Gordon, a senior fellow at the Center for Foreign Relations said Saudi Arabia’s execution of 47 individuals on terror-related charges last weekend, including al-Nimr, contained several messages not only to the U.S. but also to the kingdom’s Shia and Sunni communities.
The Saudis sent a message to Shias, according to Gordon, that “questioning of the legitimacy of the kingdom will not be tolerated”.
Before his arrest in July 2012, al-Nimr led mass protests against the Saudi regime.
“While they were executing 46 Sunnis, they had to send a message that this was not -- they weren’t just going after ISIS, al-Qaida, and Sunnis, but they were the country that was going to stand up for Sunni rights,” he added.
More importantly, he noted, there was a message to the kingdom’s traditional ally as well -- the U.S.
The veteran diplomat speculated that the Iranian response was “not an accidental result of the execution,” but one Saudi Arabia practically hand crafted in order to leave in a dilemma the U.S. geopolitical moves in the region.
“I do think that one of the messages from the Saudis was to the United States about the need to choose,” between Riyadh and Tehran, he said, noting that the row falsified U.S. hopes that the Saudis may cooperate with Iran in the region.
Gordon believes the carefully calculated move sends a clear message that Saudi Arabia will not make concessions in favor of Iranian interests, such as allowing Bashar al-Assad to remain in power in Syria or accepting Iranian influence in the region, particularly in Syria.
He said the Saudis were also unhappy with Washington’s nuclear deal with Iran and U.S. inaction in Syria to avoid hurting the nuclear deal.
If true, the lax approach to Syria probably sets back any potential on a political solution on the Syrian crisis, according to Paul Salem, Vice President for policy and research at the Middle East Institute.
In a video interview posted on the organization’s website he said instead of a military conflict, the fall out from the recent tensions will have political effects for three issues important to the U.S.
“I doubt that the [Syria] talks planned for Jan. 25 in Geneva can now take place. I certainly don’t see Saudi Arabia and Iran be able to be on the same table anytime soon,” he said.
The dispute will also unravel Yemeni talks brokered by the UN, although parties agreed last week to a cease-fire.
“It also complicates the fight against ISIS in the sense that ISIS will take the opportunity to exploit two regional powers going after each other rather than going after it,” he added.
In the end, cooler heads will prevail, said Frederic Wehrey, a senior associate at the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“The nature of the regional breakdown, the way the regional system is breaking down has inflamed the Shia-Sunni split, the Arab-Persian split, but that shouldn't lead us to conclude that these two states are locked in the rivalry,” Wehrey said in a conference call.
He expects some sort of “coordination and perhaps a backchannel dialogue” between the two at some point.
