• Should the National Rally secure a majority in the National Assembly in round 2, Macron could potentially face power-sharing with the first far-right government since Vichy France
• The decisions made in the coming weeks in the French general election will not only determine the direction of France's governance but also resonate deeply within the broader European and global contexts

The author is manager of the Istanbul-based TRT World Research Center and author of The News Media at War: The Clash of Western and Arab Networks in the Middle East. Cherkaoui is an expert in strategic communications.

ISTANBUL

It all started when the French far-right celebrated unprecedented success in the European Parliament elections, securing more seats and votes than any other French party. This win, while substantial, normally has little bearing, as European elections are second-order polls that usually witness lower voter turnout and are considered less impactful on national policy directly.

Nonetheless, out of the blue, the results were deemed significant enough to provoke President Emmanuel Macron into making an unanticipated decision. Opting against waiting for a more opportune moment, he instead called for snap parliamentary elections on June 30, 2024. This decision, made without wide consultation with key advisors like Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, was seen as a reckless move.

Ultimately, this gamble did not pay off for Macron's party, which finished third with a 20% tally in the first round of the French legislative elections. This situation inadvertently boosted the far-right's political influence. Marine Le Pen's National Rally is on track to score an unprecedented haul of parliamentary seats in the July 7 runoff, scoring 29.24% in the first round. Meanwhile, centrist parties, including Macron's Ensemble alliance, are tethering on the edge of collapse.

Not really a surprise

The decline of centrist parties has long been underway. In many recent elections, a shift in voter preferences away from traditional political parties was noticeable in the French political landscape. Les Republicains (LR), the inheritor of Charles de Gaulle's party, which represents the traditional right, is on the verge of extinction. The LR and their partners managed to secure only 6.57% in the first round but struggled to attract support.

President Macron's administration has been implicated in indirectly fostering the growth of far-right ideologies. Macron has been criticized for normalizing far-right rhetoric, an approach he has reportedly adopted since his election in 2017.

His participation in a controversial interview with the far-right magazine Valeurs Actuelles in 2019, where he discussed hot-button issues like immigration, Islam, and national identity, was the first red flag exemplifying this trend. Additionally, his appointment of Gerald Darmanin as Interior Minister was seen as an overture to far-right constituents, given Darmanin's history of contentious statements about Muslims. This perceived shift toward far-right ideologies was further cemented by the passage of the separatism bill in February 2021, signaling a significant political change.

Furthermore, the French far-right has also received substantial help from wealthy media tycoons like Vincent Bollore, who for many years used his influential and pervasive platforms to normalize culture wars waged by racists on TV, social media, newspapers, and think tanks. This influence has progressively shifted the boundaries of acceptable political discourse in France, steering public conversation towards far-right ideologies.

International backing and rebranding

Internationally, the primary winners of the far-right's triumph are Russia and Israel. Marine Le Pen has long been associated with the Kremlin. Her Russian connection, particularly at the start of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022, has somewhat tarnished her public image, although not critically so. In a 2017 interview, she openly supported Russia's actions in Crimea, commenting that her election as the French president would be advantageous for the Kremlin.

Moreover, it is an open secret that she has received generous campaign loans from Moscow-linked banks. In 2014, the National Front took Russian loans worth €11 million. One of the loans, for €9 million, came from First Czech Russian Bank, with links to the Kremlin. However, as a shrewd politician, Marine Le Pen opted to repay these loans ahead of the recent European elections to avoid any political fallout.

French far-right: Shift from antisemitism to support for Israel

The French far-right, historically associated with antisemitism since its inception in 1972 under Jean Marie Le Pen, has undergone a notable transformation. Following its rebranding in 2018 under Marine Le Pen, the NR has shifted towards a pro-Israel stance. This shift includes embracing Israel's Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, effectively distancing itself from its earlier associations with antisemitic rhetoric.

This rebranding has aimed to obscure the party's past, which once drew support from skinheads and neo-Nazis within the Front National's core constituency. Meyer Habib, a member of parliament (MP) from the LR party who represents French citizens in Israel, played a big role in mainstreaming the NR and diabolizing the leftist opposition.

The rebranding proved effective both ideologically and in terms of public perception. Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen's protege in French politics, maintains a strong presence on platforms such as TikTok and Instagram. Aged 28, Bardella is youthful and, though inexperienced in politics, has benefited from extensive media coaching that has bolstered his appeal to French youth disillusioned with traditional political figures.

An unexpected pushback

Despite riding a wave of favorability, the French far-right has spurred numerous political actors to unite. The newly formed left-wing coalition, known as the New Popular Front (NFP), brings together socialists, greens, and communists. This unexpected alliance represents France's final opportunity to prevent governance by a far-right administration. Should the NR secure a majority in the National Assembly during the second round, Macron could potentially face power-sharing with the first far-right government since Vichy France.

As France braces itself for the runoff elections and the potential outcomes they may bring, the nation stands at a pivotal moment in its political history. The convergence of shifting voter preferences, strategic alliances, and ideological transformations underscores the high stakes facing French democracy. Whether the rise of the far-right will reshape the political landscape or galvanize opposition into a formidable force remains to be seen. The decisions made in the coming weeks in the French general election will not only determine the direction of France's governance but also resonate deeply within the broader European and global contexts.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.