The writer is a UK based analyst and has worked with universities in three Central Asian countries.
LONDON
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, who began his six-year term on Jan. 28, is expected to strike a fine balance between the expectations of his domestic constituents and foreign policy pursuits.
In terms of personal strengths, Japarov is seen as a fearless person, who can take difficult decisions. He did not hesitate to unite people around himself including those dissatisfied with the earlier government, according to Nikolai Topornin, an office-bearer of the Coordination Council of Russian NGOs.
“In fact, he [Japarov] is reaping the fruits of the bold actions he took during the days of the crisis,” he said.
Although winning laurels for his bold stances, Japarov will need to demonstrate his abilities to act on promises, he has made to voters.
In his inaugural address, he declared that the country needs a management system in which they will "unquestioningly" execute laws, increase responsibility for economic and political reforms, and then be able to answer for them to the people.
Asel Doolotkeldieva, a prominent Kyrgyz political observer believes that among Japarov's aides there are none, who could be called distinguished for their reformatory spirit or even possess a concrete vision of reforms.
In the context of the current global economic crisis, it is very important to have a clear program to get the country out of a difficult situation.
She said the populist regimes all over the world generally suffer due to a lack of clear programs and mechanisms for their implementation.
Japarov has promised to create a society with rule of law, where justice and prosperity prevail. The forthcoming constitutional reform is expected to include these goals. The president has also stressed to prevent corruption, restore people's confidence in justice, give economic freedom to people with strong spirit and mind and protect the vulnerable.
Alexandra Filatova, a researcher at Moscow’s National Research University said it remains to be seen who will deliver these reforms. The implementation of the ambitious program needs professional officials with institutional memory. Otherwise, if the government is unable to deliver specific or at least some promises, it will once again create discontent and protests. In fact, the non-delivery of promises by past governments brought Japarov’s populist government to power.
Implementing large projects
To fulfill his objectives, the new president wants to start implementing large projects in the energy sector as soon as possible -- the Kambar-Ata hydroelectric power station, the Sary-Zhaz hydroelectric power station, and the Verkhne-Naryn hydroelectric power station cascade.
While announcing that Kyrgyzstan will continue pursuing multi-polar foreign policy, President Japarov acknowledged China's influence on world politics and talked about its growing economic power. It is expected that China’s rise will have a beneficial effect on the economy of Kyrgyzstan whose external debt has approached $5 billion.
Analysts are predicting Kyrgyzstan's reliance on China to procure loans and assistance. Anticipating a complicated situation for Western partners, Doolotkeldieva said considering the circumstance that brought Japarov to power, the relations will remain somewhat lukewarm as compared to ties within the region that includes former Soviet states.
Japarov has also laid out a vision to rejuvenate the economy, contribute to rapid development, and support entrepreneurship that will lead to the rise in the people's standard of living.
Acknowledging that the energy sector is facing a challenge, which owed a debt of $1.6 billion, the president has put securing concessions for gas imports as a priority on the agenda with Russia.
Russia and Kyrgyzstan have announced pursuing new initiatives and joint projects within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technical and Humanitarian Cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Kyrgyz Republic (IGC), will lay out a road map, which will include existing and potential joint projects in the field of automotive, electrical engineering, light, pharmaceutical industry, urban infrastructure.
Chairman of Kyrgyzstan State Committee for Industry, Energy and Mineral, Jyrgalbek Sagynbaev, announced that new projects will be launched by March 2021 that includes a project to jointly collaborate with a Russian company to assemble armored vehicles in Kyrgyzstan.
“This is a mutually beneficial project that is in demand in our market and may in the future constitute the export potential of Kyrgyzstan in the Central Asian region”, Sagynbaev anticipates.
Russia watching and engaging
Russia is closely watching events unfolding in neighboring countries. In Moscow, there is a realization of the need to engage with Japarov so that Kyrgyzstan does not deviate towards the West while considering the China factor too. President Japarov has been quick to declare that Russia was and remains a strategic partner for Kyrgyzstan.
Irina Jorbenadze, a political commentator recalled that Russia with its military airbase located outside Bishkek provides security to the country. Further, Kyrgyzstan is a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Hundreds of thousands of Kyrgyz migrants legally work in Russia, sending remittances home, which, according to Japarov, serve as a critical pillar of the Kyrgyz economy. Lately, Russia is aiding Kyrgyzstan to combat the COVID-19. Moscow is donating 500,000 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. Last year, Russia donated $20 million to the country. Kyrgyzstan is also interested in the domestic production of the Russian Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine.
Wait and watch for opposition
Except for a small group, some of those who had been critical of Japarov have temporarily receded into the shadows. Those who are neutral are also bidding their time.
According to a Bishkek-based professor Medet Tyulegenov, since Japarov appears too popular at this time, several political elements in the society have temporarily withdrawn themselves from posing any active competition to him.
The parliamentary elections are also scheduled in the country sometime in early summer. That will test the delivery of Japarov’s promises.
Asilbek Egemberdiev, the editor of a Kyrgyz portal, cautions pursuing a policy of persecution. He said that it may lead to discontent and new unrest. He advises caution about making loud proclamations, lest the government loses credibility and become a victim of its own loud initiatives that it could not put into practice.
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.
