The author is a researcher at TRT World Research Center

ISTANBUL

Moving through the global trade network is akin to maneuvering through a minefield, especially in regions marked by geopolitical tensions. Considering the prolonging of Israel's war on Gaza and the global competition, the validity of this proposition becomes apparent, highlighting the vital importance of secure and efficient routes.

In the past few decades, many connectivity roads and maritime links took the limelight. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a case in point. Another example is the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), which was revealed at the G20 Summit in 2023. However, the exclusion of Türkiye from this endeavor has cast doubt on the project's future, overshadowing its previously envisioned potential.

Meanwhile, Middle powers, such as Türkiye, also propose pan-regional connectivity projects that would bring enormous economic dividends to their region. For example, the Development Road, starting from the Grand Al-Faw Port in the Persian Gulf of Iraq and extending through land and railways to Türkiye before reaching European markets, presents a promising prospect. Similarly, the Middle Corridor and EU Global Gateway projects underscore Türkiye’s geographical significance as a viable hub.

Alternative routes

The shift from engagement to competition with China has led the West, particularly the United States and the European Union, to seek alternatives to counter Beijing's BRI through projects like IMEC and the EU Global Gateway.

However, IMEC's progress has been hindered by heightened insecurity due to ongoing Houthi attacks [1] in the Red Sea and the huge destabilization due to the War on Gaza, casting doubts on its viability as a safe and sustainable conduit for global commerce. Efforts to explore land routes via Jordan, originating from UAE and Bahrain ports and extending to Israel, are underway. Still, security concerns [2] and logistical limitations due to port congestions may impede trade flow as expected.

In contrast, routes involving Türkiye offer broader opportunities. Given the intensifying power competition between the West and China and the risk of prolonged conflict in Gaza spreading to the region, Türkiye’s inclusion and centrality become imperative for route sustainability for all projects.

While speculation about economic competition and potential decoupling between China and the European Union persists amidst Sino-American rivalry, the short-term realization of such scenarios remains challenging. China remains a crucial market for Europe, outweighing competitive ambitions. Moreover, China holds more appeal for the EU than Russia, favoring the Middle Corridor over the Northern Corridor. Thus, the Middle Corridor, with Türkiye playing a pivotal role, emerges as the most viable option amidst geopolitical competition.

Türkiye's central importance

Türkiye's central importance in trade routes arises also from its balanced foreign policy and openness to multilateralism. Its longstanding synergy with European markets and its commercial ties with Asian markets have been fueled by motivations prioritizing cooperation and shared gains over competition. Thus, whether the West views Russia or China as a competitor in the power game, Türkiye does not adopt a stance that would alienate one side by aligning with the other.

This is evident when we look at shining examples like the Development Road. [3] Türkiye has shown a multilateral approach during the conception and consultation stages of this project, inviting regional partners to discuss the potential and prospects. Considering the positive progress in partnership with Baghdad and Erbil in counterterrorism, Türkiye not only positions itself at the center of this project but also has sufficient grounds to assert that it can foster a secure win-win situation in the region with a comprehensive fight against PKK terrorism.

In summary, Türkiye’s centrality is not just a necessity born out of the cliché of its geographical position bridging continents. In the absence of a lasting solution to the Israel-Palestine issue in the Middle East – an impossible feat given Israel's current stance – a climate of peace and stability in the region remains a distant possibility and the need for secure and efficient routes will become the key priority in maintaining safety of global trade networks.

It is also important to note that just two years ago, the UAE leg—integral to IMEC's land route alternative—was targeted by Houthi aggression. In the high-stakes world of temporary fixes, risks abound. Yet amidst this turbulence, Türkiye’s proposed routes stand out as an opportunity too good to pass up, offering untapped potential and security.

[1] https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/red-sea-herring-israels-war-on-gaza-and-houthis-maritime-gambit-16499202

[2] https://amwaj.media/article/gaza-war-casts-shadow-on-regional-transit-projects

[3] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/opinion-turkiyes-development-road-and-geopolitics-of-interconnectedness/3005929

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu