OPINION - The stakes of the European elections

-In the turbulent period Europe is confronted with, most notably with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the EU needs cohesion and geopolitical clout, which are partly the result of the strength of its own institutions

- The rise of extreme-right political parties in a number of European states over the last 10 years will likely materialize in a significant increase of their representation in the new European assembly

- The author is an associate researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris and a visiting professor at the College of Europe (Bruges and Natolin).

ISTANBUL

From June 6 to 9, the 27 European Union member states will hold the European elections, which will designate for five years 720 members of the European Parliament.

The parliament does not stand as the most central EU institution, compared with the European Council (in which member states sit) and the European Commission (the executive arm of the EU). Yet the parliament has over time acquired a number of prerogatives, most notably through what is called the co-decision mechanism, by which it now adopts EU laws on a par with the Council (member states). Furthermore, the forthcoming elections have been presented in European media as the most important ones since they were initiated, back in 1979. The reasons are twofold and linked. ​​​​​​​

The parliament elects the chief of the EU’s executive arm

First, the elections are politically significant because from the new assembly’s distribution of seats will emanate the next president of the European Commission. Together with that of the president of the European Council, the position of president of the commission is central to the EU’s governance.

In the turbulent period Europe is confronted with, most notably with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the EU needs cohesion and geopolitical clout, which are partly the result of the strength of its own institutions.

The president of the European Commission is nominated following a proposal by the EU member states and then a vote at the European Parliament. The current president, Ursula von der Leyen, comes from the dominant political force within the parliament, the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), which is likely to remain the first political group following the elections (with approximately 170 seats according to polls).

Von der Leyen runs for a second term. It is not at this stage guaranteed that member states will propose her name for a second mandate, as the French may push for Italy’s former Prime Minister Mario Draghi instead. Whoever is nominated by the states, the EPP will have to cut deals with other groups to get a majority and have the nominee elected. This is where the second issue comes in.

The rise of populist forces within the EU

The rise of extreme-right political parties in a number of European states over the last 10 years will likely materialize in a significant increase of their representation in the new European assembly.

Some pre-election polls indicate that the populist forces could get close to 200 seats out of 720, versus approximately 160 (out of 705) in the current distribution.

The Italian Fratelli d’Italia (brothers of Italy) and the French Rassemblement national (national rally) have been particularly visible in the campaign, with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and chief of party Jordan Bardella embodying the new face of Euroscepticism. For them to influence European politics will not be straightforward though. This is so largely due to their own divisions within the European assembly. Extreme-right forces are currently split into three different groups, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Group, the Identity and Democracy (ID) Group, and the non-attached members.

One issue is that Meloni’s party and Bardella’s are not sitting together, while Hungary’s Fidesz is non-attached. Those various forces are inter alia divided on the stance towards Russia, as illustrated by the rift between the anti-Russian Polish Law and Justice (PIS) party and pro-Russian Hungary’s Fidesz. Post-election day, France’s National Rally will no doubt try to move closer to Meloni to possibly constitute a bigger group, yet many observers see that as unrealistic.

Giorgia Meloni is the prime minister and will be the dominant force in the ECR Group. Whether she will want to reach out to Viktor Orban’s Fidesz or Marine Le Pen’s National Rally remains to be seen. Poland’s PIS and others would most likely resist such a move.

Nonetheless, were populist parties to join forces, they would become the second-biggest group after the EPP and before the social democrats. They would then be in a position to influence EU policy making on an increased number of issues as never they could in the past, at the expense of the EU’s cohesion and geopolitical strength that the current situation requires.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.