ISTANBUL
US President Donald Trump’s "off the cuff" declaration that Washington was trying to secure the return of the Bagram Air Base from the interim Taliban administration is "difficult" for both sides while posing a survival threat to rulers in Kabul, experts told Anadolu.
"We gave it to 'em for nothing. We're trying to get it back, by the way," Trump told a news conference on Thursday in the UK, alongside British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Though it was during his first term in the White House when the US signed the Doha deal on Feb. 29, 2020, with the Taliban for the drawdown of all foreign forces from Afghanistan, Trump has been particularly critical of his successor, Joe Biden, for the hasty withdrawal of the troops.
They invaded the war-torn nation in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, twin blasts in New York.
The Bagram Airfield (BAF), also known as Bagram Air Base, is located 11 kilometers (7 miles) southeast of Charikar in Parwan Province, adjacent to the capital Kabul.
Suhail Shaheen, the Taliban’s designated ambassador to the UN, told Anadolu Kabul welcomes good relations with the US, but if Washington has any "covetous ambitions whatsoever, then they need to go through the history of Afghanistan."
"The lesson is clear, and they will learn a lot," Shaheen said.
"The chances of any presence of foreign troops, particularly the US, in Afghanistan (under the Taliban rule) are next to nil," Ibraheem Bahiss, Afghanistan expert at Crisis Group International think tank, told Anadolu.
The Taliban interim administration is yet to formally react to Trump's announcement, but one of its officials, Zakir Jalaly, said that Afghans have not accepted a military presence in history, and the return of Bagram Air Base was rejected during the Doha talks.
"Such a move would undermine the interim Taliban administration, with the possible rise of core Islamist factions," Bahiss said over the phone from Kabul. "There is no chance of this happening."
Mansoor Ahmad Khan, who served as Pakistan’s ambassador in Kabul when the foreign forces rushed out in 2021, agreed with Bahiss’ assessment.
"It looks quite difficult that such a thing is likely to happen," Khan told Anadolu, describing Trump's statement as "off the cuff."
"The Taliban insurgency against the US and NATO forces was to end foreign occupation. If they allow any kind of foreign presence… US presence, at Bagram or at any other place, it would be very difficult for them to justify their struggle against foreign forces," said Khan, a first-person witness to consequential political changes in Kabul when the Taliban returned to rule for the second time since the 1990s.
In Islamabad, Pakistan Foreign Ministry spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan on Friday refrained from commenting on Trump’s plans to retake Bagram Air Base.
"On Bagram, in terms of our diplomatic position, this is an issue between Afghanistan and the United States. Of course, whatever happens in our region, we follow it," Khan told a news conference.
Bagram built by Soviet forces, controlled by ‘nationalist’ Taliban
Bagram is a significant airbase initially built by the USSR that "metastasized into a quasi-city for the US during its occupation of Afghanistan," Ahmed-Waleed Kakar, an Afghan analyst and editor-in-chief of The Afghan Eye, told Anadolu from the UK.
The Taliban's control of the Bagram base has been the "cause for repeatedly stated grief" for Trump, whose "interest in making a deal to retake the base as part of a wider bilateral deal has been made recurringly clear," he said.
Though the interim Taliban administration has "repeatedly expressed its willingness to have upgraded and even friendly ties with the US, it's unlikely to do so at the expense of what many of its ranks and Afghan society more broadly would view as coming at the cost of Afghan sovereignty," Kakar said.
Sitting in his office in Kabul, Noor Ahmad, a business consultant and political commentator, mirrored the opinion of the Afghan experts.
"It is impossible" for the Taliban "to go back to the same thing," Ahmad told Anadolu.
"Withdrawal of the foreign forces was the beginning of the Doha deal," he said, referring to the pact signed by incumbent Afghan Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar and then US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad.
Then, Trump's top diplomat, Mike Pompeo, attended the signing ceremony in the Qatari capital.
"For the Taliban, this is a survival instinct," Ahmad told Anadolu about Trump’s plans to retake Bagram Airbase. "There is no chance until the Taliban are here."
According to Kakar, the London-based Afghan analyst, the Taliban have become, largely perceived, a nationalist force deeply entwined with its religious credentials.
"Such a deal would jeopardize its legitimacy as a patriotic force as well as its religious legitimacy insofar as hosting a non-Muslim superpower on avowedly Islamic and Sharia-governed territory," he explained.
The second Trump administration has had a limited exchange with the Taliban administration, which resulted in the swap of prisoners.
Trump's move challenge to Afghan diplomatic détente with Russia, China
Since their return to power in August 2021, the Taliban administration has only been internationally recognized by Russia.
China was the first nation to accept a Taliban ambassador whose credentials were personally received by President Xi Jinping. Since then, several nations have accepted the Taliban’s diplomats.
Trump’s move to retake Bagram "will also undermine" the Taliban administration’s diplomatic détente with China and Russia," said Bahiss of the Crisis Group.
"But it is still a positive point that shows the US wants a quid pro quo and transactional diplomacy with Afghanistan," he explained.
The Taliban want recognition, unfreezing of at least $9 billion in foreign assets, as well as the removal of UN sanctions on its leaders, Bahiss said.
"And for the Taliban, there has to be some reciprocal move," he added.
According to Khan, the Pakistani diplomat, the Taliban were expecting recognition as well as a seat at the UN when they returned to power four years ago.
"But there were expectations from the international community of them (Taliban) as well, including some sort of constitutional framework, inclusiveness in their administration, human and women’s rights, allowing girls to go to school, and media freedom," said Khan.
Bahiss added: "The Taliban leadership has not been willing to compromise on issues like women's rights; expecting them to compromise on Bagram would be too much."
However, Khan said if the Taliban and the US still enter into any arrangement, "without meeting these demands (of the international community)… it means Washington will have to compromise on its position."
Such a situation "is very difficult for both sides," he stressed.
"If the Taliban wanted it," Khan said about the presence of foreign forces, "they would have done it in 2021."
Ahmad, the political commentator, added that Trump’s declaration "is so outrageous for the Taliban that if anyone from their group thinks about it, they could be swiftly removed from power corridors."
What drives US interest?
Khan said the US still has an interest in the region where China has expanded its presence and influence.
Back in March, Trump said he had planned to keep Bagram Airbase "not because of Afghanistan but because of China."
"There are other things that the Taliban can offer, but not the (Bagram) base," said Ahmad, referring to business opportunities, including the exploration of minerals for the US companies.
It could be a "counterbalance" to Chinese and Russian influence in the country, he said.
Any US recognition of the Taliban "opens formal exchanges, including businesses with the US, which raises" competition for Russians as well as Chinese, he said.
