EXPLAINED - Thailand poll outcome: What lies ahead

ANKARA

Progressive opposition parties won a majority of the seats in Sunday’s election for Thailand’s parliament, dealing a blow to the military-backed party. What does this crucial verdict mean for the country, where the democratic process has seen frequent disruptions? Here is an explainer.

​​​​​​​• Twin pillars of Thailand establishment

Thailand's political landscape is often divided into two camps: those who support the military establishment, and those who support greater democracy and civil liberties.

Prayuth Chan-Ocha, a retired army officer, came to power through a military coup in 2014, ousting the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

He led the military junta until 2019, when he became the prime minister of a civilian government appointed by the junta's hand-picked lawmakers. He has remained in power since, making him one of Thailand's longest-serving prime ministers.

• Chance for change

The general election was, therefore, seen as big chance for change, a decisive battle between progressive opposition parties and those allied with royalist generals bent on preserving the status quo and who had toppled three of the four populist governments.

• Big win for progressives

Sunday’s election dealt a decisive blow to the military establishment. The progressive Move Forward Party and the populist Pheu Thai Party won 152 and 141 seats respectively, followed by Bhumjaithai’s 70. The Prayuth-led United Thai Nation won a mere 36 seats. The winner must secure at least 376 votes, and no party is likely to do that on its own. The prime minister will be selected in July in a joint session of the 500-member House of Representatives and the 250-seat Senate. There are 400 seats for winning constituency candidates and 100 party seats allocated on a proportional representation basis.

• What are the concerns?

Move Forward and Pheu Thai have said they will form a coalition along with other smaller opposition parties. But forming a government will not be easy, as the parliamentary rules written by the junta after the coup are skewed in its favor. For example, although Pheu Thai won the majority of the seats in 2019, the military-backed Palang Pracharath Party stitched together a coalition with Prayuth as premier, after securing the unanimous support of the Senate dominated by members appointed by the military after the coup.
Move Forward has said that with its planned coalition, it would have 309 seats in the House. This is short of the 376 that is needed for its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, a Harvard graduate and former business executive, to become prime minister.

• Disruptions in the past

Aware of the challenges, Pita put on a defiant face after the Monday results. He told the media: “With the consensus that came out of the election, it will be quite a hefty price to pay for someone who is thinking of abolishing the election results or forming a minority government... it is quite far-fetched for now." But undermining this confidence could be the country’s frequent disruptions of democracy. Thailand has seen 12 successful coups since 1932. Move Forward’s predecessor, Future Forward, which also promised reform and performed well in the 2019 election, was dissolved just one year later. Since 2006, nine political parties have been dissolved, including not only Future Forward, but also the predecessors of Pheu Thai.

• Election promises

Move Forward, which won 14.2 million votes out of 52 million eligible voters, had campaigned promising to remove the military’s influence from politics to make the country more democratic. It touched the most sensitive of all issues—the royalty – promising to reform the stringent lese-majeste law that shields the king from criticism. It also promised to break up the big monopolies that dominate the economy, expand the welfare system, modernize the school curriculum, and scrap mandatory military conscription. He also said he favored “rules-based diplomacy,” adding that it is not acceptable for bigger states to bully smaller countries. Thailand should stick together with mid-size countries, he said. The stand on these issues has made it hugely popular among young people.

Pheu Thai targets economic growth of 5% each year, offer $295 handouts via digital wallets for those age 16 and over to spend in their communities, and a three-year debt moratorium on capital and interest for farmers and one-year debt moratorium for smaller businesses hit by COVID-19.

Bhumjaithai, a regional heavyweight whose 70 seats could be crucial in the government formation, has seen its stature grown with its push to make Thailand Asia's first country to legalize the sale of cannabis.