ISTANBUL

Even before the first ballot was cast in Taiwan, China’s stance on the island nation’s recent elections was clear, with statements put out including words such as “dangerous separatist” and warnings to “crush” any independence attempts.

Lai’s win in Saturday’s presidential race gives the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) an unprecedented third term ruling the self-governed island of around 24 million people.

Experts believe, Lai, who described himself in 2017 as a “pragmatic advocate for Taiwan independence” after outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen appointed him as premier, will pursue his predecessor’s “moderate and cautious” cross-strait approach.

Commenting on his win, Beijing said a person who secured 40.5% of the vote “cannot represent mainstream opinion” in Taiwan.

Lai “has to persuade Washington and the over half of the population that did not vote for him that he will be a steady hand at the wheel,” Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Anadolu.

Under Tsai’s watch since 2016, the US exponentially increased defense support and interaction with Taiwan.

Defense contracts worth some $19 billion are still pending in shipments, while in 2021, Tsai confirmed that American soldiers were deployed there for “training purposes,” marking a first since the US and China established diplomatic relations in 1979.

In a visit with clear significance, former senior US officials were in Taiwan right after the Jan. 13 polls, including ex-National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley who told Tsai in Taipei that Washington’s commitment to Taiwan remains “rock solid, principled, and bipartisan.”

US interference and anger in China

China “believes Washington is changing the status quo, while claiming they aren’t,” Beijing-based analyst Einar Tangen told Anadolu.

In his message after the elections, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken congratulated Lai and “the Taiwan people for participating in free and fair elections and demonstrating the strength of their democratic system.”

Einar pointed out that “congratulatory messages to Lai elevate his status in violation of the One China agreement.”

“China is angered by US interference in what it sees as its internal affairs. They see Washington’s actions as part of its containment strategy,” he argued, citing US publications which “clearly identify Taiwan as a strategic part of a ‘First Island Defense’ Plan to project US power into Asia.”

US President Joe Biden, however, was quick to assure Beijing on Saturday that Washington does not support Taiwan’s independence.

“China sees those, like Lai, who collaborate with the US as dangerous security threats,” said Einar.

In such an environment, Shun-wen Wang, a professor at the Chinese Culture University in Taipei, said the Taiwanese are “very careful” about being dragged into a US-China battle.

For him, if the world moves to a “bipolar system” where sides have to be taken, “the US side, rather than the Chinese side would be a better alternative maintaining our status quo and deterrence from threat.”

According to Chienyu Shih, a research fellow at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Research, Washington “believes that China will endanger US hegemony” in the wider Asia-Pacific region.

“If the US abandons Taiwan, it will be equivalent to the US giving up its leadership and interests in this region. Washington DC currently has no intention to back down,” he said.

Economic interdependence, divided legislature

While Lai’s victory made headlines, there was a setback for the DPP in the elections, as it lost its majority in the Legislative Assembly.

The DPP now has 51 seats, one short of the nationalist party Kuomintang (KMT) at 52.

The newly-founded Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) won eight, while two seats went to independent candidates.

Lai needs at least 57 to push his policies through the legislature.

“Both KMT and TPP want more practical relations with the mainland, especially on economic issues. Between them they will control the speaker position, and therefore, the legislative agenda,” Einar explained.

“The way is therefore open for Beijing to work with the opposition parties,” he said.

Chienyu agreed that Lai “as a minority president … is likely to encounter difficulties at the beginning of his administration,” with opposition parties likely to hold a grip on handling of “domestic affairs.”

Shun-wen was of the view that Lai “will try to negotiate with China as both sides still have strong economic interdependence.”

“Taipei under Lai will try not to irritate the mainland China,” he stressed.

Building on that, Einar pointed out that approximately 40% of Taiwan’s total GDP depends on China, so “any moves by Lai to push a separatist agenda would be met with economic sanctions first and military second.”

Speaking to Anadolu, Haiyun Ma, an associate professor at Frostburg University in the US, also acknowledged that it would be “difficult for mainland China and the new government of Taiwan to improve relations.”

However, Ma said the new government in Taipei “will try to de-escalate tension with mainland China.”

‘Strategic culture of saving face’

Hong Kong-based international affairs analyst Andrew KP Leung told Anadolu that there would be “no war yet.”

“All Taiwan parties do not dare declare independence, using the rhetoric that Taiwan is already an ‘independent political entity’,” he said, referring to Lai’s earlier remarks that he has been walking back of late.

Crisis Group’s Amanda agreed with that assessment, adding that there are other ways in which China will increase pressure, particularly like Monday’s announcement by Nauru that it was cutting ties with Taiwan, leaving Taipei with only 12 allies, down six since Tsai rose to power in 2016.

“Beijing’s poaching of Nauru from Taipei was meant as a strong show of China’s opposition to Taiwan’s election results,” Amanda told Anadolu from Taipei.

“It is likely that we will see more such pressures in the weeks and months to come. It’s important to note that these pressures do not signal that an invasion is in the works. Beijing will increase pressures to push Taipei and Washington toward a more moderate approach.”

Shun-wen, the political science professor, stressed that Lai “will try to find negotiations with mainland China as he already said.”

“China will try many ways, from diplomacy to military, to pressure Taiwan continuously, but most of Taiwanese want the status quo to continue,” he said, adding that Taipei under Lai “will try not to irritate mainland China.”

However, he quickly added, that the Chinese side has a “strategic culture of saving face.”

Chienyu, the research fellow, said China’s failure to restart dialogue with Taipei after Lai assumes office on May 20 will give the US the room to “continue to deepen restructuring and strengthening the military capacity of Taiwan’s defense.”

“Taiwan’s current defense policy is to ‘annihilate enemies in the Taiwan Strait,’ but if the situation worsens, it may change and add another layer of defense, which is to imitate the Ukrainian war and ‘enhance urban warfare capabilities’,” he added.

For dialogue to resume, China has to “abandon the 1992 Consensus as the basis for coexistence with Taiwan, and instead try to negotiate a new content that may keep the status quo of the Taiwan Strait,” he said.

Since the November San Francisco summit between President Xi Jinping and Biden, Chienyu said there “has been a dispute between hawks and moderate hawks (if not doves) within the US government.”

“The key to the dispute is whether there is a need for limited reconciliation and re-engagement with China. However, this year, the 2024, is the year of the US presidential election, and it is difficult to make major policy amendments,” said Chienyu.

“Washington DC and Beijing have been willing to accept President Tsai’s Taiwan Strait policy for the past eight years. If Lai can inherit this policy line, there is no reason to irritate either party now.”