ISTANBUL

Commodity prices were mixed last week amid rising trade war concerns fueled by US tariffs.

US President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports went into effect last week, prompting retaliation from the EU.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced countermeasures worth €26 billion (around $27 billion dollars) against Trump’s tariffs, while Canada imposed 25% tariffs on US imports worth $20.7 billion.

These retaliatory actions have raised concerns that the trade wars could escalate, analysts said.

Meanwhile, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year in February, while the country’s Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat on a monthly basis and rose 3.2% on an annual basis, below estimates.

Gold hit another record high of $3,400 last week due to Trump’s aggressive trade policies and rising geopolitical risks. However, it did not maintain its new all-time high, ending the week at $2,895 per ounce, up 2.6%, amid trade tensions and recession concerns.

Investors flocked to safe-haven assets like gold, driven by uncertainty over Trump's trade policies and the unpredictability of economic policies worldwide.

Silver rose 4% last week after the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) suggested silver could outperform gold if there is a modest recovery in the manufacturing sector. However, a potential slowdown in the US economy could dampen that outlook.

Metal and mining sector

Palladium and platinum climbed 1.5% and 3.4%, respectively.

Base metals were mixed due to the impact of US tariffs, giving rise to price volatility.

Copper rose 3.8% last week, fueled by the steel and aluminum tariffs, with physical copper traders benefiting from the high premium in the US futures market at the CME Group compared to the London Metal Exchange.

Goldman Sachs predicted net copper imports may rise 50% to 100% in the coming months due to high US prices, noting that a global copper deficit of 180,000 tons is expected this year, driven by strong electrification demand, China’s stimulus packages, and declining mine supply.

Nickel climbed 0.7% after reports that Indonesia is considering increasing its share of profits from miners from the current 10% to 14%–19%, depending on prices.

At the same time, lead rose 1.5%, while aluminum fell 0.2%.

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil recovered from a seven-week decline, rising 0.1% to $70.24 per barrel amid uncertainties over the ceasefire in Ukraine. Natural gas, however, dropped 7.1% last week.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he supports the US’ 30-day ceasefire proposal in Ukraine but said some fundamental issues need resolution for lasting peace. His Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, called Putin’s statement manipulative and demanded more sanctions on Moscow.

Diminishing hopes for peace in the region weakened market estimates on Russian energy supplies, while US sanctions on Iranian oil also led to supply concerns. The US Treasury sanctioned Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad and several companies operating vessels transporting oil to China, which it called a “shadow fleet.”

The International Energy Agency revised its oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 per barrel, setting the daily increase at a little over 1 million barrels, while 60% of the demand is expected to come from Asia.

Agricultural sector

Geopolitical tensions and weather conditions contributed to mixed results in the agricultural sector last week.

China completely halted soybean imports from three major companies and rerouted its purchases to Brazil for soybeans and corn, causing soybean prices to fall 0.8% and corn to drop 2.2% per bushel.

Analysts say that Beijing’s preference toward Brazil could lead to a supply deficit in China’s feed sector and increase demand for soybeans from South America.

Brazil lowered import tariffs on agricultural products to control food inflation in its domestic market, while Vietnam also made a similar decision to maintain its trade balance with the US.

Wheat rose 1% per bushel due to unfavorable weather conditions in the southern states of the US, while rice climbed 1.3% per bushel last week.

Meanwhile, cotton increased by 1.9% after the Cotton Association of India announced that the country’s 2024-2025 season cotton production will fall short of consumption, potentially doubling cotton imports.

Coffee fell 1.9% last week due to concerns over reduced demand and increased rainfall forecasts in Brazil.

Sugar soared 4.8% per pound, while cocoa dropped 4.9% per ton last week.