Turkey: Current account deficit at low level since 2009

ISTANBUL

Turkey's 12-month rolling current account deficit fell to its lowest level -- $12.83 billion -- since the end of 2009 in March, official figures showed on Monday.

The monthly current account deficit also saw the lowest level at $589 million since October 2015, according to Turkey's Central Bank data.

Economists expect that the country's current account deficit will continue to narrow down.

Haluk Burumcekci, economist and financial analyst at Anadolu Agency, said recovery in the current account balance will continue until end of the first half of 2019.

"Lower foreign trade deficit versus the last year and posting surplus of services item were main factors for recovering of the current account deficit," he noted.

Burumcekci said that he expected the country's year-end current account deficit will be $10 billion.

Banu Kivci Tokali, chief economist of HalkInvest, a subsidiary of state lender HalkBank, stressed the current account deficit could drop to $8-10 billion in April, of which data will be released in June.

She underlined that the decline in the deficit would continue rapidly during the first half of the current year due to policies to support exports, the base effect and moderate energy prices.

Tokali forecast that the country would close the year with $19 billion current account deficit.

"The current-account-deficit-to-GDP ratio, which was 5.6% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018, could fall to 2.6% by the end of 2019," she added.

The country's new economic program, announced last September, is targeting a current-account-deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3.3% in 2019, 2.7% in 2020, and 2.6% in 2021.

Orkun Godek, DenizBank Investment Group strategist, highlighted that the current account deficit of $589 million was under the expectations of $1 billion in March.

"In the first quarter, the current account deficit was $1.9 billion, while it was $16.2 billion in the same quarter last year," he said.

*Writing and contributions by Gokhan Ergocun