•⁠  ⁠ 'If you are going to get a major development of Turkmen gas going westward, then Türkiye will be the player that will make it happen,' says John Roberts, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center

ISTANBUL

As Türkiye works to strengthen regional cooperation to achieve its goal of becoming a hub for the international natural gas trade, experts expect it to play a key role in facilitating the export of Turkmen gas to Europe.

Energy diplomacy among Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and hydrocarbon-rich Turkmenistan, home to the world's fourth-largest natural gas reserves, has intensified as Europe seeks alternative gas routes following the Russia-Ukraine war.

Türkiye and Turkmenistan signed a memorandum of understanding on March 1, laying the groundwork for future hydrocarbon collaboration, followed by a natural gas cooperation agreement between Ankara and Baku on the transportation of Turkmen gas to Türkiye via Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar outlined three potential routes to Türkiye for Turkmen gas, namely through Iran or Iran-Azerbaijan via swap. The third alternative involves Turkmen gas flowing through a trans-Caspian pipeline, a longer-term option that offers greater sustainability and capacity.

Bayraktar said that in the first phase, approximately 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Turkmen gas will be delivered to Türkiye.

In late July, during his visit to Turkmenistan, Bayraktar announced a target of approximately 300 bcm of gas, aiming for an annual supply of 15 bcm over 20 years.

Trans-Caspian pipeline could face delays

Julian Bowden, a senior visiting research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told Anadolu that while the Turkish energy minister set a target of 15 bcm annually, initial volumes would likely begin at 1.5–2 billion cubic meters per year via a swap arrangement with Iran, with the first gas transfer in 2025.

Highlighting Turkmenistan's huge hydrocarbon resources, Bowden noted that the primary challenge lies not in supply but in establishing viable transportation routes and reaching commercial deals to facilitate trade.

"For 15 bcm per annum to work, there would have to be a physical trans-Caspian pipeline," Bowden said.

John Roberts, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center, echoed Bowden, saying that maximizing existing infrastructure could facilitate Turkmen gas exports to Türkiye.

Roberts said constructing a new, large-scale pipeline from the Turkmen coast to Türkiye was not "practical" under current conditions.

Danila Bochkarev, an independent gas expert, told Anadolu that the planned trans-Caspian pipeline was unlikely to be built in the near future due to geopolitical, financial, and environmental hurdles.

He also pointed out that Iran's potential exposure to sanctions poses risks to gas swap agreements.

Starting with small volumes is key

Any new source of affordable gas benefits Türkiye's economic development and strengthens its position as a regional gas hub, Bochkarev noted.

Bowden agrees, noting that each country has a "strategic advantage" from a possible gas export.

He emphasized that increased supply diversity, including Turkmen gas, would reinforce Türkiye's position as a regional gas hub.

"Supply from Turkmenistan, even in small volumes, would help deliver the idea of building a hub," he added.

Turkmen gas would be an "alternative supply to pipeline gas from Iran and Russia," Bowden added.

According to him, the main obstacle will be transportation, as "15 bcm per year is a very large volume of gas. This is too much for a swap arrangement."

A trans-Caspian pipeline and significant expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor and Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) would be needed to transport Turkmen gas to Europe, he said.

The only feasible approach, he suggested, might be to start small and expand into a full-scale trans-Caspian pipeline if successful. "Clearly, the gas landscape across the Caspian, trans-Caucasus, and southern Europe would be transformed with the opening of a large-scale export from Turkmenistan westwards."

A small swap through Iran for 1-2 bcm per year would have little market impact for either Türkiye or Europe, "although it would have a large symbolic impact," he added.

In principle, said Bochkarev, the independent gas expert, the Turkmen-Turkish deal will facilitate the transfer of Turkmenistan's natural gas to the EU.

"Turkmenistan's gas can theoretically be sold in Europe for a competitive price," Bochkarev said.

"However, compared to deliveries to China or other ways to monetize gas resources such as fertilizers or petrochemicals, it will not yield much profit for Turkmengaz." he said.

Increased gas trade a win-win for Türkiye and Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan needs to find alternative outlets for its gas, according Roberts of the Atlantic Council. "You've got one outlet already, China. But it doesn't grow as fast as it should."

The Central Asian country "has been trying for 20 years to get a pipeline to Pakistan and India, but you're making little if no progress," he added.

"So, here you have the work that President (Recep Tayyip) Erdogan has put into the project, signing an MOU to bring in gas to Türkiye, and then trying another MOU to ensure that Azerbaijan was in a position to act as a transit country," he explained. "That's the line that Turkmenistan will be interested in."

Pointing out that much of Turkmenistan's vast gas resources are currently idle, Bowden said the country is "hugely dependent on China as its only export market. TAPI (Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India pipeline) is not happening. Europe needs gas supply to help replace the lost Russian volumes."

While Turkmenistan probably needs Türkiye more than Türkiye needs Turkmenistan, both countries stand to benefit from increased gas trade, regardless of the final destination, according to Roberts.

He said: "If anybody can make a Turkmen export project across the Caspian work, it is the Turkish authorities."

"If you are going to get a major development of Turkmen gas going westward, then Türkiye will be the player that will make it happen."