US expects Iran war to keep 9.1M bpd of Middle East crude offline in April

More than 9 million barrels per day of crude oil production from key Middle Eastern producers is expected to remain shut in April as the war in Iran continues to disrupt regional energy flows and roil global markets, according to its April Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The EIA said Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain collectively shut in 7.5 million barrels per day of crude production in March, and projected the outages would widen to 9.1 million in April.

The agency said limited oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were causing storage to fill quickly in countries that rely on the waterway for exports.

If the conflict ends by the end of April, as assumed in the forecast, production shut-ins would ease to 6.7 million barrels per day in May, according to the report. The EIA added that output from the affected producers would be expected to recover gradually and return near pre-conflict levels by late 2026.

The latest outlook also pointed to a stronger US supply response. The EIA said higher crude prices led it to expect US crude production to average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026 and rise to 13.8 million barrels per day in 2027, with the 2027 forecast revised up by about 0.5 million barrels per day from last month’s outlook.

The agency said Brent crude averaged $103 per barrel in March and is expected to peak at $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 before easing as shut-in production slowly returns. It said a geopolitical risk premium would likely keep prices above pre-conflict levels for some time.

Separately, President Donald Trump has set an 8 pm ET Tuesday deadline (0000GMT Wednesday) for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the US begins attacks on critical infrastructure.