• Transatlantic partnership has faced critical junctures before, but ‘this is the first time that all these tensions are occurring at the same time, with also the potential of dividing Europeans among themselves,’ says Missiroli,  former NATO assistant secretary-general
• With a number of unknowns at this stage, the main challenge for the EU is ‘to preserve its own internal unity,’ says Missiroli
• In case of further divisions, some countries in Europe might ‘start thinking that some degree of cooperation with China could be useful,’ Missiroli tells Anadolu
• ‘At least until the midterm elections in 2026, the Trump administration will still do a lot of damage to allies, to transatlantic relations, and also to international stability and security,’ says Missiroli

ATHENS 

The current tensions between Europe and the US are an accumulation of longstanding issues and represent an unprecedented confluence of problems that could lead to deeper divisions across the Atlantic, according to Antonio Missiroli, the former NATO assistant secretary-general for emerging security challenges.

In an interview with Anadolu, Missiroli said the transatlantic partnership has faced critical junctures before, such as France’s withdrawal from NATO’s military wing in the 1960s after the US adopted a flexible response strategy toward the Soviet Union, while trade tensions also existed in the 1970s and 1980s.

“Presently, there is a combination of some economic and commercial trade-related issues with the tariffs that US President Donald Trump has announced against the EU. There is also a potential strategic divergence over what to do with Ukraine … and then there are some tensions about the future of NATO to some extent,” said Missiroli, currently a senior advisor at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI).

He also drew attention to recent provocative developments that have intensified the strains, including controversial remarks by US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference in February and Elon Musk’s explicit support for far-right movements in Europe, notably the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Britain’s Reform UK.

The current situation, he emphasized, is unique because “this is the first time that all these tensions are occurring at the same time, with also the potential of dividing Europeans among themselves.”   

Trump’s transactional politics or strategic shift?

The Trump administration’s approach has come as a shock to Europeans, said Missiroli, cautioning about its significant long-term consequences.

“Everybody is wondering today, what really lies behind all this, and it’s very difficult to assess,” he said.

“Is it simply the more transactional approach to international relations that has been predicated by Trump for a long time? … Is there a sort of strategic shift whereby Trump considers that the world should be divided up between spheres of influence, giving Russia a significant chunk of the Eurasian continent to this effect … and paradoxically, also giving China, to some extent, some sway in East Asia? Because that would be just the logical consequence of the logic of spheres of influence.”

Trump’s actions at the moment, he continued, could be “an issue of sequencing.”

“First, he wants to address in particular the European theater in order perhaps to strike some deal with Putin, suspending sanctions against Russia, imposing tariffs on Europeans, and potentially, also achieving some ceasefire in Ukraine so that he could claim victory and move on,” said Missiroli.

“Then, of course, probably his attention could shift to the Asian theater.”

Given this uncertainty, he said Europe faces considerable challenges in formulating a coherent strategic response, particularly as it attempts to safeguard fundamental aspects of the transatlantic alliance despite the current tensions.

“It is very difficult to react rationally and strategically to all this and I think that is one of the reasons why we have all these summits, all these consultations (in Europe) to try and build a degree of unity and commonality of purpose among those allies of the US that are a bit shocked by the conduct of the new administration,” he said.  

Pivot to Asia-Pacific and EU response

Turning to Asia, Missiroli said the US’ unexpectedly cautious stance toward China, despite the tariff threats, might indicate Trump’s preference for transactional diplomacy rather than strategic confrontation.

“When it comes to China, which has a significant retaliation capability in trade terms vis-a-vis the US, Trump may be more cautious. Therefore, the expectation that he would focus on the Pacific to counter China may be misplaced. Maybe it is not what he has in mind in this particular span,” he said.

“But still, if I were a Japanese or South Korean politician, I would be prepared for some potential bad news in the future.”

Discussing Europe’s potential countermeasures to Trump’s pressure, Missiroli said the EU has considerable leverage: “The European Commission has exclusive competence on trade, and hence individual member states cannot decide on their own what to do. They have to decide collectively.

“There is even the possibility of qualified majority voting on trade issues, so a single country cannot veto everybody else. I think that increases the potential for the EU to respond adequately.”

The EU, he said, has the “possibility of doing harm to the American economy, in particular, if it targets those sectors of the economy that supported Trump, both regionally and in terms of sectoral industry.”

Despite this, he clarified that a trade conflict remains undesirable: “That said, my impression is that Europeans at large would prefer to avoid a trade war with the US because probably nobody would win.”

Should such a conflict erupt, Missiroli anticipates swift diplomatic efforts to resolve tensions, pointing out that the EU’s trade commissioner is already engaged in discussions with American counterparts aimed at averting escalation.

“But probably what is happening with and over Ukraine is also going to shape the climate and the atmosphere at the transatlantic level over the next days,” he added.  

- EU’s strategic autonomy and unintended consequences for US

Addressing the implications of the Ukraine conflict, Missiroli spoke about the increased diplomatic activities within Europe, involving both EU and non-EU NATO members such as Canada, Norway, and Türkiye.

“I think everybody is trying to keep a degree of cool and to come up with some packages that could be decidable in these frantic times,” he said.

He said the EU has already stepped up in support of Ukraine, citing its commitments of direct aid surpassing $60 billion, which significantly exceed anticipated US contributions for 2025.

However, Trump’s decision to suspend aid to Ukraine further pressures the EU to assume a more prominent role, he added.

On European rearmament, Missiroli acknowledged the EU’s considerable financial and technological capacity to support Ukraine, but warned that challenges persist, notably in maintaining internal EU unity.

“There are a number of unknowns at this stage that are still there, but the main challenge for the EU is to preserve its own internal unity,” he said.

“The countries that were in London last Sunday did not coincide with the European Union. There were more countries – of course, the UK, Norway, Türkiye, Canada – present at the meeting, and other countries were not present, or were not invited.”

He cautioned about existing divisions, citing opposition from Hungary and Slovakia and highlighting potential complications from upcoming elections in Romania and the Czech Republic.

Another consequence of the increasing tensions, Missiroli said, could be that some European countries start looking toward China as an alternative.

“One of Beijing’s strategic objectives over the past few years has been to separate Europe from the US. Trump is doing it for Beijing right now,” he said.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if, in the event of a major breakup of transatlantic relations, some people in Europe start thinking that some degree of cooperation with China could be useful.”

If it comes to that point then, despite the persistent distrust in Europe toward China, some countries could look for areas of cooperation such as climate change and technology, he said.

“It’s too early to tell but, as I said, the Trump administration is highly unpredictable. This is the moment when they are probably at the top of their power to ‘shock and awe’ the international community,” said Missiroli.

“Maybe a few months from now, it will become more visible that some of these actions have been counterproductive, even for American interests. Then, of course, things could change a little bit, but my impression is that at least until the midterm elections in 2026, the Trump administration will still do a lot of damage to allies, to transatlantic relations, and also to international stability and security.”  

Türkiye’s role in European security

Missiroli also discussed Türkiye’s prospective role in European security architecture amid increasing calls for EU strategic autonomy, saying that despite past tensions “strategic realities and … industrial interests could prevail.”

He noted optimistically the significance of recent developments, including the partnership between Italy’s aerospace giant Leonardo and Turkish drone maker Baykar: “I think this may be just the beginning.”

Stressing mutual responsibility, he added: “Of course, at the political level, I am tempted to say that it takes two to tango, that the readiness and the availability must be shown on the EU side and also on the Turkish side … I hope that both industrial interests and strategic realities will bring this about sooner rather than later.”