- Liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and conservative Karol Nawrocki will face off on Sunday in a crucial vote that remains too close to call
- Trzaskowski, a pro-EU advocate supported by Prime Minister Tusk, edged the first round ahead of Nawrocki, who is backed by US President Trump
- Poland’s president has a largely ceremonial role, but their right to veto legislation means the outcome will significantly impact Tusk’s ability to implement his agenda
ISTANBUL
Poland is set for a high-stakes presidential runoff election on Sunday, with liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki facing off in a contest that could determine the country’s trajectory on key domestic and international issues.
From relations with the EU to migration policy and security, voters are being asked to choose between two starkly contrasting visions for Poland’s future.
According to latest opinion polls, the race remains neck-and-neck, with the result likely hinging on voter turnout and the choices of undecided citizens.
How does the election work?
Polish citizens aged 18 and above will vote on Sunday between 7 a.m. and 9 p.m. (0500 GMT to 1900 GMT) to elect a successor for President Andrzej Duda, whose second and final five-year term ends in August.
The first round of the presidential battle was held on May 18. Some 29.3 million people were eligible to vote in a country of 37 million, and the overall turnout stood at 67.31%.
Trzaskowski narrowly led the first round with 31.36% of the vote, followed closely by Nawrocki at 29.54%. Since neither candidate secured more than 50%, a runoff was triggered.
Who are the candidates?
The runoff presents voters with a stark ideological choice.
Trzaskowski, 53, is the current mayor of the capital Warsaw and a liberal candidate backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Platform party. He ran against Duda in 2020 and lost by a slim margin.
A staunch pro-EU advocate, Trzaskowski has pledged to reinforce Poland’s defense capabilities, proposing to raise military spending to 5% of GDP, up from 4.2% in 2024, according to NATO data.
He also promises to enhance defense planning through regular National Security Council meetings and plans to allocate half of all modernization funds earmarked for the military to Polish defense industries.
Trzaskowski supports abortion rights, LGBTQ+ protections, and limiting social benefits for Ukrainian refugees living and working in Poland. While supportive of Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, he recently stated he would not deploy Polish troops to the country.
His opponent, 42-year-old historian Nawrocki, represents a conservative nationalist agenda supported by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023.
While Nawrocki also supports increasing defense spending, he diverges significantly on EU policy and social issues. He opposes the EU Migration Pact and the Green Deal, rejects adopting the euro, and has vowed to block adoption rights for same-sex couples and prevent gender transitions for minors.
Crucially, Nawrocki has the backing of US President Donald Trump, who hosted the Polish politician at the Oval Office on May 2 and sent his aides to Poland this week to reaffirm his support.
“I just had the opportunity to meet with Karol, and listen, he needs to be the next president of Poland,” US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) held in Poland earlier this week.
She also criticized Trzaskowski, calling him an “absolute train wreck of a leader” and saying that “socialists and people that are just like this mayor out of Warsaw … have destroyed our countries.”
What are the key issues for voters?
Security, migration, and the economy dominate the concerns of Polish voters ahead of the runoff.
Poland remains one of Europe’s top refugee-hosting countries in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war. According to the UN Refugee Agency, the country currently has nearly 1 million refugees, most of them women and children.
Both candidates support strong security measures, but differ on long-term migration policy and integration strategies.
Economic pledges such as tax relief, lower energy costs, increased local investment, and protection for Polish farmers are also central to the campaigns.
Meanwhile, the candidates’ opposing views on LGBTQ+ rights, reproductive freedoms, and Poland’s relationship with the EU may influence voters beyond traditional party lines.
The question of whether Poland will embrace a liberal, pro-European path or pivot toward nationalist conservatism is also a crucial concern.
Trzaskowski represents continuity with the current pro-EU government, while Nawrocki could usher in a return to more combative relations with Brussels.
Who is leading and what comes next?
With both contenders polling within the margin of error, the vote appears too close to call. The most recent Opinion24 survey for broadcaster TVN24 shows Trzaskowski with 47% support and Nawrocki at 46%, with the rest undecided or unwilling to say.
While Poland’s president has a largely ceremonial role, they do hold the right to veto legislation, meaning that Sunday’s outcome will significantly impact Prime Minister Tusk’s ability to implement his agenda.
Under Duda, a close ally of the PiS, government initiatives were frequently vetoed, and a Nawrocki presidency could prove even more obstructive, especially on EU cooperation and social reforms.
In contrast, a Trzaskowski win would give Tusk’s coalition a clearer path to deliver promised reforms and reassert Poland’s position within the EU.
