• Economic disparity between east and west Germany, demographic decline in the east, and the region’s ‘authoritarian and anti-democratic legacy’ were key factors, says Loss
• ‘AfD positions and rhetoric have become normalized’ and election win cements party’s ‘role as a center of gravity in east German politics,’ Loss tells Anadolu   

ISTANBUL 

A far-right party’s election win in Germany has reverberated globally, spurring fears over the country’s political future and the growing strength of movements with extreme positions.

On Sept. 1, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the first far-right party to win a regional election in Germany since World War II, bagging nearly 33% of the vote in the eastern state of Thuringia – the same place where the Nazis first won power in 1930.

AfD also came second in neighboring Saxony, showing its muscle in eastern Germany and representing a significant setback for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government just a year before the next federal election.

Stunning as it may be, the AfD’s victory is a reflection of very real issues, not least the “continued economic differences between east and west Germany, and many East Germans’ self-perception as second-class citizens,” said Rafael Loss, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Others include the region’s demographic decline and the “authoritarian and anti-democratic legacy” of its history, he said, emphasizing that former East Germany is where the AfD “has produced its strongest electoral results for some time now.”

“Former East Germany’s demographic decline is further accelerating. The average age of many places is well above Germany’s, and the gender ratio in some towns is the worst across Europe, with men outnumbering women by as much as 20%,” he explained.

“Feelings of being left behind turn into resentment, which fuels political extremism,” Loss told Anadolu, adding that many AfD voters “felt that Germany’s mainstream democratic parties had not properly addressed these issues in the past.”

A more direct factor in the election result, he said, was the stabbing attack in the town of Solingen on Aug. 23, just a week before the vote, where a rejected Syrian asylum seeker killed three people and injured eight others.

The attack drew strong reactions in the country, reigniting a debate on Germany’s asylum rules. A week later, the government resumed deporting convicted Afghan criminal offenders to their home country.

“This (attack) fueled concerns about immigration and crime, which the right-extremist AfD further amplified and benefited from,” said Loss.  

‘AfD positions and rhetoric have become normalized’

Loss explained that the AfD “first emerged as an anti-Euro party after the financial crisis slightly more than a decade ago, but it has since pivoted to increasingly nationalistic policies and rhetoric.”

This is particularly the case in Thuringia, “where Bjorn Hocke, a fascist, is the state party leader,” he said.

Far-right parties elsewhere in Europe, such as France’s National Rally or Italy’s Brothers of Italy, “have attempted to moderate their extreme views to appeal to centrist voters … (but) the AfD has gone the opposite direction, adopting increasingly extreme positions and rhetoric,” Loss said.

He pointed out that there is now much more acceptance of such views.

“AfD positions and rhetoric have become normalized. There is less of a stigma today than there was in the past for far-right positions,” he said.

“The majority of AfD voters no longer go to the polls for the party in order to express protest, but rather because they share the AfD’s views.”

Another point that “clearly appeals” to the party’s voters is its “pro-Russian, anti-EU, anti-American views,” said the analyst.

Loss, however, also pointed out that “two-thirds of voters did not put a cross next to the AfD on their ballots.”

“Saxony and Thuringia might not be representative of the rest of Germany. After all, they represent a mere 6 million out of Germany’s overall population of 84 million,” he said.  

AfD a ‘center of gravity in East German politics’

Chancellor Scholz issued a stark warning after Sunday’s results, reflecting the gravity of the German far right’s biggest electoral success since World War II.

“Our country cannot and must not get used to this. The AfD is damaging Germany. It is weakening the economy, dividing our society and ruining our country’s reputation,” he said in a statement.

He called on all democratic parties to join forces and support building coalition governments to keep the AfD out of power in Thuringia and Saxony.

On the impact of the far-right party’s success, Loss said it will “cement the AfD’s role as a center of gravity in east German politics.”

“They’ll have more formal power now than previously to block initiatives and to shape policy at the state level, including by influencing the selection of judges or changing school curriculums,” he said.

“They’ll also be in a stronger position to shape political discourse in Germany by forcing other parties to respond to their proposals and rhetoric, no matter how outlandish or illegal they are.”

In terms of foreign policy, however, they will still have “little formal influence,” said Loss.

“Nevertheless, they’ll seek to change the terms of the debate on Germany’s support for Ukraine, which could have practical consequences in turn.”