France could see 1.7 million fewer students by 2035

France could lose nearly 1.7 million students by 2035, according to Education Ministry projections released Wednesday.

The ministry said the drop would represent a 14% decrease in enrollment across public and private schools under contract.

Education Minister Edouard Geffray said the projections are intended to help local authorities anticipate changes in school demand and adjust planning accordingly.

The decline reflects a long-term fall in births that began in 2010 and has accelerated in recent years.

France recorded 645,000 births in 2025, nearly a quarter fewer than in 2010.

Primary schools are expected to lose more than 930,000 students, while secondary schools could see a drop of nearly 744,000.

The decline is expected to first affect preschools and elementary schools before extending to middle and high schools.

The impact is likely to be strongest in Paris, where primary school enrollment could fall by as much as 29%.

Across France, the decline will become noticeable in the 2026 school year, with more than 160,000 fewer students expected than in 2025.

Preschools alone could see a reduction of 46,500 pupils.

No schools will close in 2026 without the approval of local mayors, the ministry added, saying the data will support dialogue between the state and local authorities.