• Scholz, the 66-year-old incumbent chancellor, is facing an uphill struggle for re-election as his Social Democratic Party struggles to maintain relevance
• SPD leader is trying to win back voters by warning against a rightward shift in the country, particularly the possibility of the Christian Democrats forming a coalition with the far-right AfD

BERLIN 

Ahead of Sunday’s crucial elections, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces an increasingly precarious political position as his Social Democratic Party (SPD) struggles to maintain relevance.

Recent polls show the party has fallen to an unprecedented third place behind the Christian Democrats and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – a bitter disappointment for the 66-year-old veteran politician who had higher hopes when announcing his candidacy last year.

When the Social Democrats endorsed Scholz’s bid for a second term and dissolved their three-party coalition in November to trigger snap elections, many party members hoped to once again match their remarkable turnaround from four years ago.

In summer 2021, the SPD polled at just 15%, trailing the Christian Democrats by nearly 15 percentage points. The party’s fortunes turned around after Scholz’s conservative rival, Armin Laschet, damaged his campaign by laughing inappropriately during a flood disaster.

The Social Democrats went on to win the elections with 25.7% of the vote.

While launching their election campaign, many Social Democrats were optimistic about a repeat through intensive voter outreach and trust-building efforts. Yet recent polls suggest this strategy has not gained traction, leaving Scholz’s re-election chances looking dim.  

Lagging in polls

According to the latest survey by public broadcaster ZDF, the SPD remains at 16%, marking what would be the party’s worst electoral performance since the Federal Republic of Germany’s establishment in 1949.

Conservative leader Friedrich Merz and his CDU/CSU bloc maintain a lead at 28%, followed by the AfD at 21%, double its vote share from 2021.

Scholz’s current coalition partner, the Greens, holds steady at 14%.

The survey also revealed stronger approval ratings for conservative candidate Merz compared to incumbent Scholz.

When asked about their preferred chancellor, 32% of respondents chose Merz, while Scholz received just 18% support. Even the Greens’ candidate Robert Habeck outperformed Scholz, with 21% preferring him as the next chancellor.  

Scholz’s biggest trump card: Merz’s mistakes

As a veteran politician, Scholz has capitalized on Merz’s campaign mistakes, keeping the focus on the Christian Democrats’ rightward shift and the potential danger of them forming a coalition with the far-right AfD.

In televised debates, Scholz has consistently challenged Merz’s credibility, pointing to his openness toward the AfD and questioning the sincerity of his promises to avoid coalition talks with the far-right party.

Merz sparked widespread outrage several weeks ago when he introduced anti-immigration legislation to parliament, attempting to secure its passage with the AfD’s support.

The strategy backfired spectacularly. After a heated parliamentary debate, Merz’s controversial bill was defeated, and the move triggered massive protests throughout Germany, with demonstrators condemning the chancellor frontrunner for legitimizing far-right politics.

Facing intense backlash, Merz retreated, pledging that the Christian Democrats would shun cooperation with the AfD after the elections.

While his wavering position has cost the CDU/CSU around 2 percentage points in polls – not as much as the Social Democrats had hoped – the AfD has consolidated its position as the Germany’s second-strongest political force.  

Migration: SPD’s greatest vulnerability

The problem of mass migration, along with several violent incidents and attacks committed by foreigners in recent months, have put Chancellor Scholz’s government under immense pressure as right-wing parties accused the government of failing to control borders and protect public safety.

Scholz pushed back against these criticisms, stating that opposition parties were resorting to populist rhetoric and proposing measures – such as permanent border controls or rejecting asylum seekers at borders – that violate both German constitutional and EU laws.

The veteran Social Democrat said his government has adopted a tougher stance to curb irregular migration, working on “real solutions” while achieving practical results and respecting rights and laws.

“We have implemented temporary border checks, and approximately 40,000 people have been denied entry,” Scholz said during a televised debate last week, referring to those who lack legal authorization to enter Germany, including economic migrants and undocumented individuals.

“Last year, irregular immigration dropped by 100,000 – nearly a third. This January, we recorded the lowest number of asylum applications since 2016,” Scholz said, asserting that deportations of undocumented migrants have risen by 70% since he took office.

Despite Scholz’s claims of progress, migration remains one of the top concerns for German voters, alongside economic challenges, rising inflation, and the growing cost-of-living crisis, according to latest surveys.  

SPD’s promise for growth and social justice

In an effort to win back voters, Scholz has developed an election platform focused on growth and social justice.

His key campaign promises include raising the minimum wage to €15 (almost $16) per hour from 2026 onwards, providing tax relief for millions of workers, reducing VAT on essential foods, and making energy more affordable for all.

He has also proposed creating a Germany fund to boost investments, modernize infrastructure, support new housing projects, and speed up the green transition with climate-friendly technologies.

In response to opposition criticism about the struggling economy, Scholz had maintained that these challenges arose from the Russia-Ukraine war, not his policies. He argued that his government had successfully steered the country through these difficult times.

The Ukraine conflict, which began in late February 2022, has profoundly impacted Germany’s economy. The country’s participation in EU sanctions, cessation of Russian gas and oil imports, and loss of a major export market led to severe economic consequences.

Under Scholz, Germany has provided substantial military and financial support to Ukraine, which has significantly strained the national budget.  

Tensions with Trump and support for Ukraine

Escalating tensions between the US and Europe during the campaign period, particularly President Donald Trump’s controversial decision to exclude European allies from direct talks with Russia, have significantly impacted the German election dynamics.

Scholz has avoided harsh criticism of Trump while consistently emphasizing that Europeans should participate in these talks. He has committed to providing continued military and financial support to Ukraine to strengthen its negotiating position in future discussions.

“Ukraine must not be left alone,” Scholz said on Friday, adding that Ukrainians must be included in any negotiations about the future of their country. He declined to comment on sending German troops as part of a peacekeeping mission, emphasizing that it was too early to discuss such proposals.

While promising strong financial and military support to Ukraine, Scholz has stood firm in his opposition to delivering long-range Taurus missiles, which could reach Russian territory.

The Social Democrat has consistently emphasized in his campaign speeches that having the SPD in the next coalition government is crucial to ensure Germany will not become a party to the Ukraine conflict.

In contrast to Scholz’s position, his main rival Merz has consistently called for sending advanced weaponry to Ukraine, including Taurus missiles, arguing this would strengthen Ukraine’s position in potential peace talks with Moscow.

Scholz was particularly vocal in criticizing US Vice President JD Vance’s recent remarks at the Munich Security Conference, where Vance spoke in support of the AfD and accused European governments of anti-democratic practices.

“I think it must be quite clear that what was said there is completely unacceptable,” Scholz said, defending Germany’s longstanding political principle of maintaining a “firewall” against far-right parties by refusing to cooperate with extremists.

“We have learned lessons from the Nazi period that there can be no cooperation with the extreme right. That is why we have laws that make this possible, such as banning National Socialist symbols in Germany, unlike in the US. I believe that it must remain that way.”