- As sanctions on Moscow continue, growing exports to neighbors of Russia over last 10 months draws attention

- 'Roughly half of Germany's exports to Kyrgyzstan never show up in Bishkek according to Kyrgyz data on imports from Germany. So Kyrgyzstan is just what gets written on the invoice. Stuff never goes there. It goes to Russia. German exports to "Kyrgyzstan" must stop.'

- 'German exports to Kazakhstan jumped sharply in October and are back near their highs right after Russia invaded Ukraine. German exports rose sharply from March 2022, which makes it likely these goods are headed to Russia, with Kazakhstan just an intermediary. This has to stop...'

BERLIN

The EU has so far imposed 11 sanctions packages against Russia due to the war. A wide range of restrictions are applied on Russia, including on trade, finance, energy, oil, coal, industry, technology, transportation, dual-use and luxury goods, and gold.

The EU currently is working on its 12th package against Russia to ban diamond trade and tighten oil prices.

Despite the sanctions, figures show that EU goods, especially German goods, continue to provide services in Russia through third countries.

There are no signs that German exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus have started to decline since the Russia-Ukraine war began, according to the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

German exports to Kyrgyzstan jumped 180.1% this January-October year-on-year, reaching around €592 million.

Exports from Germany to Kazakhstan rose 32% to €2.7 billion, and exports to Armenia climbed 19.3% to €423.8 million.

Germany's exports to Russia fell 39.1% in the 10-month period year-on-year, to €7.6 billion.

Germany's exports to Russia fell sharply, while exports to Russia's neighbors rose significantly, fueling concerns that Germany is helping Moscow circumvent sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.

Stuff never goes to Kyrgyzstan, goes to Russia instead

Writing on X on Dec. 6, Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF), assessed the rise in Germany's exports to these countries.

"Roughly half of Germany's exports to Kyrgyzstan never show up in (the capital) Bishkek according to Kyrgyz data on imports from Germany. So Kyrgyzstan is just what gets written on the invoice. Stuff never goes there. It goes to Russia. German exports to 'Kyrgyzstan' must stop," he said.

In another post, Brooks stressed that Germany's exports to Kazakhstan increased sharply in October, saying: "German exports to Kazakhstan jumped sharply in October and are back near their highs right after Russia invaded Ukraine. German exports rose sharply from March 2022 (the month the war began), which makes it likely these goods are headed to Russia, with Kazakhstan just an intermediary. This has to stop..."

Brooks said that as of September, Germany's exports of automobiles and parts shot up 5,500% to Kyrgyzstan, 720% to Kazakhstan, 450% to Armenia, and 340% to Georgia.

In yet another post, Brooks also noted that German exports to Central Asia rose right after the Russia-Ukraine war and have stayed high, saying:

"You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that all this stuff is heading to Russia. It's not like Kyrgyzstan is suddenly in a massive boom. This is so obviously not in Germany's interest. It gives Putin access to Western technology. No short-term profit can be worth that."

Velina Tchakarova, a strategist, mentioning Brooks' post, said: "Indian exports of fuel and petroleum products to Germany increased by 1,127%, from €37 million in January–July 2022 to €451 million in the same period in 2023. Germany has bought them at a higher cost from India, and in many cases they were produced from Russian raw materials."

Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan in customs union with Russia

Graham Timmins, a lecturer in international politics at the UK’s University of Birmingham, shared a post from Brooks and wrote: "Germany more than any other state was responsible for promoting the EU's strategic partnership with Russia, and German corporate interests arguably did most to undermine it. Looks a similar picture when it comes to the application of EU sanctions towards Russia now."

On Dec. 9, he wrote: "EU data on exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus are just so bonkers. Take EU exports to Armenia, which are up 200% since Russia invaded Ukraine. This stuff obviously isn't staying in Yerevan, but going to Moscow, where it helps Putin. The EU truly is Putin's dream adversary."

"What is going on in Brussels? EU exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus (blue) are up 74% since Russia invaded Ukraine. Central Asia and the Caucasus are obviously just way stations for Western goods on their way to Moscow. Why does the EU keep looking the other way?"

On the other hand, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan are in a customs union with Russia, meaning that goods going from the EU to these countries can be resold to Russia without further checks or customs tariffs.

*Writing by Emir Yildirim in Istanbul