•  More than three decades after reunification, Germany is facing a new East-West divide. Political education, dialog instead of slogans, civil society and the ability to generate new ideas are the order of the day

By Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie

-The author is Director of the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies (CASSIS) at University of Bonn.

ISTANBUL

Germany has voted, and the choice of 60 million voters will have a significant impact on the future of the German Bundestag. The red-green-yellow “Ampel” (traffic light) coalition led by Olaf Scholz (SPD) has suffered a devastating defeat. The Liberals, who have played a decisive role in government formation for decades, have now been ousted from parliament.

Throughout the election campaign, the Greens attempted to downplay their role in Germany’s economic crisis. They too were punished by voters and now have to take to the hard opposition benches. Friedrich Merz and the CDU/CSU sister parties emerged as the election winners, securing a clear mandate to form a new government. However, the parliamentary composition leaves room only for a “grand coalition” between CDU/CSU and a weakened SPD. It will be a grand coalition in name, but this alliance will have to be different from the grand coalitions of the past, because nothing less than a fundamental change of policy is required in Germany if the trends that have now become apparent are to be reversed.

This is especially true for migration policy, where repeated government failures in recent months call for an urgent course correction. Additionally, the social security system and excessive bureaucracy have driven the German economy into a deep crisis, necessitating reforms. The worryingly strong performance of the right-wing populist, in some cases even far-right AfD, which has doubled its share of the vote, and the resurrection of the Left Party, which was written off some time ago with just under 9% and shares the opposition role with the Green Party, which was voted out of office, will ultimately continue to change the political discourse in Germany.

Far-right and far-left parties are rising

Voters have delivered a clear message of no confidence in the political establishment. If more than 30% of voters have opted for extreme left-wing and right-wing parties, this means a massive loss of confidence in the established parties to solve problems that are pending and perceived as urgent. There can, therefore, be no simple “business as usual” after this election result. This applies first and foremost to the actual winner, Friedrich Merz, who has gained the chancellorship largely due to the coalition government’s missteps, rather than through his own political triumph. During the election campaign, Merz proved his ability to address pressing issues and incorporate them into his party's political program.

With his biography, his many years of political experience, his clear commitment to the social market economy, to transatlantic ties and to Germany's European orientation, he embodies credibility and consistency. At the same time, his distance from Angela Merkel within the party, as well as his courage in naming undesirable developments during Merkel's years as chancellor, is an advantage and enables him now to take a step back without having to leave the path of Christian Democratic orientation.

The balance between the CDU and CSU has shifted in favor of the CSU due to the good performance of its Bavarian sister party. Of course, Merz does not yet have complete control over the political chessboard. This is because he is dependent on the defeated SPD as a partner. Angela Merkel would have said: “There is no alternative to the SPD as a coalition partner.” The battered Social Democrats will have to reinvent themselves quickly under the leadership of Lars Klingbeil. This will be all the more likely to succeed as the SPD will have to open an unsparing dialogue with its own core voters about the issues on which Olaf Scholz has failed so spectacularly. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who had already kept the greatest possible distance from Scholz during the election campaign and stands for a pragmatic course, will retain his place at the cabinet table in any constellation.

A new chapter in the long history of political liberalism in Germany begins today. A collapse is never the end. With Christian Lindner, it is not the pilot who is leaving the ship, but the man who wanted to be captain, first mate and chief mate at the same time. The FDP broke the 5% barrier because it failed because of itself and Christian Lindner's leadership. This outcome underscores the need for political liberalism –essential to Germany’s democracy – to rebuild itself both ideologically and structurally. It also signals the end of one-man dominance in politics.

AfD might lose its popularity

Although the AfD had reason to celebrate yesterday, its further demystification will now continue with increased vigor. Its lead candidate Alice Weidel has shown a high profile, especially in the media, during the short election campaign. The AfD remains far from governance due to its extreme positions, particularly its stance on National Socialism, its authoritarian foreign policy approach, and its historical revisionism. Its ties to Putin’s Russia further alienate it from mainstream politics.

The political system in Germany loves consensus and has a weakness for the lowest common denominator. Sunday's result, however, is a wake-up call for Germany if the Federal Republic is to regain its leading role in Europe in turbulent geopolitical times, as has been one of the secrets of Germany's success and recovery after the lost war for many years. A significant portion of young voters has turned to far-right and far-left parties. The AfD is the strongest political force in all eastern German states. More than three decades after reunification, the country is facing a new East-West divide. Political education, dialog instead of slogans, civil society and the ability to generate new ideas are the order of the day.

Democracy in Germany, which has proven to be stable since 1949, is now facing a test that the democratic parties of the Weimar Republic had to face in a completely different historical context. If left-wing and right-wing radicals are able to outdo each other, the center will ultimately become a no-man's land. It is up to future Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz to ensure that the real decision-making issues are quickly taken up by a government capable of taking action and that lost trust is restored. The upcoming coalition negotiations with the SPD are the first litmus test. Normally, German coalition partners love to pass agreements that run to several hundred pages and look like order catalogs from election manifestos. Merz can use his negotiating skills to prove that he has heard the message from election Sunday. He now has the opportunity to determine whether his grand coalition will continue incremental politics or drive meaningful change.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.