- The situation is ‘a pretty depressing state of affairs for the two main traditional parties of government in the UK,’ says political historian Nigel Fletcher

- These elections will be seen ‘predominantly as a rejection’ of the Conservatives and Labour, says Fletcher

LONDON

As England heads to local elections on Thursday, analysts believe dissatisfaction with the main political forces – Labour and Conservatives – will be the primary story of the polls.

Voters across 23 English councils will elect councillors and mayors in what are the first set of local polls since the July 2024 general election that brought Labour back to power.

Nigel Fletcher, a political historian and lecturer, sees the elections as a significant challenge for Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, with both under threat from smaller, non-traditional political parties.

Reform UK, a right-wing populist party, is likely to make significant inroads at the Conservatives’ expense, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats could make gains at the cost of both Labour and the Conservatives, according to Fletcher.

“What we’re seeing is that dissatisfaction with the main political parties is the big one (issue). We’re seeing a lot of support for the non-traditional parties,” he told Anadolu.

In particular, Fletcher believes Nigel Farage’s Reform UK will capture significant attention and may achieve “quite serious gains,” primarily from Conservative voters.

He added that Farage is deliberately targeting traditional Conservative voters in the “home counties,” the six counties surrounding London, which have historically been the former ruling party’s strongholds.

On the other hand, he said Farage is also strategically appealing to Brexit supporters, many of whom initially turned to the Conservatives after the 2016 referendum but later felt alienated.

“So, I think he’s in quite a good place to be getting votes from both directions,” Fletcher said.

While the Conservatives are attempting to regain these voters, he suggests they face a much tougher battle this time around.

The Green Party is also anticipated to make advances in several areas, mainly at Labour’s expense, he said, further exacerbating difficulties for the two main political parties.

“Both of the main political parties in the UK … are facing this threat from more minor parties that are eating into their support,” he said, describing the situation as “a pretty depressing state of affairs for the two main traditional parties of government in the UK.”

Fletcher said that while Labour, having been the ruling party for nearly 10 months, was expected to lose some support in these elections, it was particularly unusual that the main opposition, Conservatives, are also performing “really very badly.”

According to the expert, the economy has also become a more prominent issue this year compared to last year.

He highlighted the controversial measures taken by Labour since their election victory, such as fiscal tightening, tax increases, and cuts to public services, which have negatively impacted many voters who traditionally supported the party.

Alongside the economy, Fletcher mentioned that immigration remains a significant concern among voters in many key constituencies.

Changing voter demographics

In Thursday’s election, all council seats will be contested in 14 county councils, including Cambridgeshire, Derbyshire, Devon, Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, and Worcestershire.

Additionally, eight unitary authorities – Buckinghamshire, Cornwall, County Durham, North Northamptonshire, Northumberland, Shropshire, West Northamptonshire, and Wiltshire – as well as the metropolitan district of Doncaster, will also see elections taking place.

Furthermore, six mayoral elections are scheduled, notably in the West of England, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, North Tyneside, Doncaster, and for the first time, in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire. Council elections will also be held in the Isles of Scilly.

Fletcher also touched upon a notable shift in voting intentions in recent UK elections. He explained that traditionally, voter preferences were strongly tied to class and income, but recent trends reveal that age has become a far more significant predictor of voting behavior.

“The Conservative Party is doing pretty astonishingly badly amongst younger voters; their support is being much more concentrated amongst older voters,” he said.

He observed that while Labour performed considerably better with younger voters last year, Reform UK is currently polling much better than the Conservatives among younger demographics, posing yet another strategic problem for the traditional parties.

Fletcher highlighted several mayoral races to watch closely, particularly pointing to Greater Lincolnshire, where Reform UK appears well positioned.

A recent YouGov poll indicated Reform UK’s candidate, Andrea Jenkyns, is comfortably leading, polling at 15% ahead of her rivals.

On the other hand, the Liberal Democrats are expected to achieve modest gains. Fletcher mentioned that while their estimated pickups may range from approximately 70 to 80 seats in some analyses, optimistic forecasts suggest they could secure several hundred seats.

“For Reform UK, on the other hand, the estimates range from sort of 350 up to nearly 700 seats that they are looking to gain, while the Conservatives are looking (set) to lose several hundreds,” he explained.

“I think it will be seen predominantly as a rejection, firstly, of the Conservative Party and also of the Labour Party,” he added.

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