Red Cross warns 204M people now live in areas controlled or contested by armed groups

By Beyza Binnur Donmez

GENEVA (AA) - An estimated 204 million people worldwide now live in areas controlled or contested by armed groups, 30 million more than in 2021, according to new findings released Tuesday by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).

Of these, 74 million are under full armed-group control, while 130 million live in contested areas, the ICRC said in a statement.

The organization's 2025 mapping identifies 383 armed groups of humanitarian concern across more than 60 countries. More than one-third are parties to armed conflict and bound by international humanitarian law.

The ICRC said it maintains contact with around three-quarters of these groups to negotiate access, deliver aid, and promote respect for civilians.

"These figures confirm what we have been observing for several years now: most armed groups are not temporary actors but deeply entrenched in the territories where they operate," Matthew Bamber-Zryd, ICRC adviser on armed groups, said in a statement.

"But insecurity, counter-terrorism restrictions and limited resources increasingly stand in the way of sustained dialogue.

"Recognizing these realities – who controls what, for how long, and the constraints under which we engage – is essential if we are to reach people living in the areas most affected by violence," he added.

Field research from Cameroon, Iraq, and the Philippines between 2024 and 2025 highlighted the daily struggle in contested areas, the ICRC said, where civilians face shifting authority and fear reprisals.

Breakdowns in essential services further heighten risks. In many contested territories, neither state authorities nor armed groups reliably provide healthcare, education, or civil documentation, the ICRC noted. Without papers, people struggle to move, access services, or prove their identity, leaving them more vulnerable to abuse and exclusion.

Humanitarian access also remains difficult despite the willingness of many armed groups to engage. Challenges range from insecurity to legal and administrative constraints imposed by states, it added.

"In many contested areas, the collapse of basic services means people survive through their own resourcefulness and social networks," Arjun Claire, the ICRC senior policy adviser, said. "States and armed groups cannot fight their wars on the backs of civilians. Contested control does not mean contested obligations – controlling territory brings responsibility to protect those living there, not a license to target them."

The organization urged all parties to respect international humanitarian law, protect civilians, and facilitate impartial humanitarian access.