JERUSALEM 

Israeli military analyst Amos Harel on Friday said the army wants to withdraw from Gaza, but that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "has other ideas."

In an analytical article in the Israeli daily Haaretz, Harel said Netanyahu “continues to declare that the all-out war against Hamas will continue for as long as it takes.”

“He's again scattering promises of total victory to his supporters. … In reality, what we have is a war that looks more eternal than a victory that's total,” he said.

The analyst noted that “Netanyahu's supreme goal remains survival: to get through the Knesset's summer session and wait in the hope that Donald Trump will be elected U.S. president in November.”

“That's preferable for him compared to the alternative of a permanent cease-fire in Gaza (along with a hostage deal), an effective admission of failure to achieve the goals of the combat, and the almost certain resignation of the extreme right parties from the coalition and the collapse of the government,” Harel added.

The Israeli analyst also said that “with political survival as the supreme goal, other likely implications of prosecuting an endless war are reduced in importance; namely, an increasing load on the combat troops in the regular army and in the reserves, a deepening crisis with the (Joe) Biden administration (of the US) and an erosion of international legitimacy for Israel's actions.”

Regarding the army’s plans, Harel said “the moment of truth – another moment of truth – in the war will likely arrive within a few weeks,” without further explanation.

“The Israel Defense Forces will complete their offensive action in Rafah, under American restrictions and far from inflicting a total defeat on Hamas, and will want to declare a conclusion,” he said, noting that “the generals will come to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ask him to help them achieve strategic clarity.”

Harel indicated that the generals “will recommend a cessation to the campaign in the Gaza Strip, in the present format.”

“The army will suggest reducing the already limited number of troops operating in the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border and in the other corridor in the center of the Strip, and to focus on raids against additional Hamas targets and again giving other moves an opportunity,” he added.

“Those moves are intended to include an attempt to restart the contacts for a hostage deal and a cease-fire in Gaza,” Harel added, noting that “if that works out, and the odds don't look great at the moment, it will be possible to exploit the time to give the soldiers a refresher period, during which the United States will make a final effort to forge a diplomatic agreement in Lebanon geared to distancing Hezbollah forces from the border with Israel.”

“Otherwise, preparations will be made for a possible all-out war in the north,” said Harel, referring to Lebanon.

The military analyst pointed out that "in regard to the hostages, the army doesn't have encouraging news at the moment.”

Israel, flouting a UN Security Council resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire, has faced international condemnation amid its continued brutal offensive on Gaza since Oct. 7, 2023 attack by the Palestinian group Hamas.

The Palestinian death toll from relentless Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip since last October has exceeded 37,400, according to the Health Ministry in the besieged enclave.

More than 85,600 people have also been injured in the onslaught, the ministry added.

Over eight months into the Israeli war, vast tracts of Gaza lay in ruins amid a crippling blockade of food, clean water, and medicine.

Israel stands accused of genocide at the International Court of Justice, which in its latest ruling ordered it to immediately halt its military operation in the southern city of Rafah, where over a million Palestinians had sought refuge from the war before it was invaded on May 6.

*Writing by Ikram Kouachi