OPINION - COP28: A Milestone on a long journey

- The author is an Associate Fellow at Chatham House

ISTANBUL

The chant “Fossil fuels phase-out!” was echoing across the vast UN Climate Conference (COP28) venue in Dubai on Wednesday morning. Inside the cavernous plenary hall, the gavel struck to announce that a deal had been reached between 200 nations on how to respond to the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement. For the first time, the parties agreed to call for a “transition away from fossil fuels." This landmark moment capped 2 weeks of hard-fought multilateral negotiations, climate commitments, and financial pledges.

Looking beyond the much-cited fossil fuel headlines, what did the 2023 climate summit actually accomplish? As a veteran of climate negotiations, I believe COP28 marked incremental but meaningful progress across mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, and, crucially, linking climate policy to nature and food systems.

The negotiated outcomes

The summit yielded several key negotiated agreements to build on past climate pacts. After years of stonewalling, nations agreed on a mechanism for operating a loss and damage “response fund” to help vulnerable countries deal with the irreparable impacts of climate change-fueled weather extremes. Following the initial agreement one year ago at COP27 at Sharm El Sheikh, COP28 started with a detailed agreement on how this facility will rely on donor government contributions and will be run by the World Bank. The fund received $700 million in early money, which represents 0.2% of the irreversible losses developing countries are facing from global heating every year. Looking forward, the real test lies in industrialized nations delivering substantial, long-term financing to this fund.

The Global Stocktake (GST), a critical 5-year “report card” assessing global climate efforts under the Paris Agreement and proposing a way forward, was the major show at this climate summit. Deliberations over how to respond to the technical stocktake resulted in a balanced, if jargon-laden, synthesis. For the first time in 25 years of climate talks, the GST text mentions “food systems,” noting their central role in both emissions and climate resilience. The explicit links drawn between climate change and nature loss also mirror language from December’s COP15 biodiversity pact.

However, the most heated negotiations centered around the GST’s call to “transition away from fossil fuels” – the first inclusion of fossil fuel phase-down language in a major United Nations (UN) climate pact. This landmark moment capped 2 weeks of tough negotiations and campaigning by developing nations and activists.

It has also sparked a debate globally between those who applaud the move as a first step and those who decry its toothless provisions. Critics note the absence of a phase-out timeline and highlight major loopholes allowing fossil fuel production to continue. So while the GST signposted the end of fossil fuels as a global goal, the real test lies in translating words into on-the-ground energy shifts. Immediate comments by Saudi and Emirati officials on continued production of oil and gas suggest that arguments about the agreed text are just getting started.

Another COP28 outcome was the development of a framework to guide nations in their efforts to protect their people and ecosystems from climate change, considered a major step on the road to formulating a “global goal on adaptation” equivalent to the global goal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.

Pledges aplenty

Much like COP26 in Glasgow, the arrival of world leaders in Dubai also brought an avalanche of voluntary pledges and coalitions during the first week. Climate announcements are increasingly being scheduled to coincide with the annual climate summit, and despite being unrelated to the multilateral negotiations, such announcements have become embedded into expectations around climate summits.

On energy, the biggest announcement was the global pledge on renewables and energy efficiency made jointly by the EU president and the UAE COP28 presidency. The pledge, which was endorsed by 130 countries, set a target to triple installed renewable energy capacity to at least 11 terawatts (TW) globally by 2030. It also aimed to double the rate of global energy efficiency improvements from roughly 2% to 4% per year by the same date. Additionally, 71 nations signed a pledge to move towards net zero emissions from cooling actions by 2050, while 22 nations signed a declaration to triple nuclear energy capacity.

In addition, 9 new countries signed up to the Powering Past Coal Alliance, a group of 60 nations pledging to phase out “unabated” coal power, and additional countries joined the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, a small group of nations committing to phasing out all fossil fuels.

Separately, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia launched the “Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter,” signed by 50 fossil fuel companies representing 40% of global oil production. The charter pledges to end routine gas flaring by 2030, achieve net zero methane emissions, and align with global net zero in their own operations by 2050. The Global Methane Pledge, which aims to reduce methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030, has also expanded to include 155 countries.

On food systems and land use, more than 150 countries, collectively representing over three-quarters of global food system emissions, signed the Emirates Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action. The declaration includes a pledge to integrate agriculture and food systems into national climate plans by 2025. On forests, 40 more countries endorsed the Mangrove Breakthrough initiative, committing to conserve 15 million hectares by 2030.

Finally, the voices of subnational and local stakeholders echoed louder in Dubai than ever within the UN climate process. 71 countries signed up to a new Coalition for High Ambition on Multilevel Climate Governance, which connects national governments with regional and city leaders, recognizing and encouraging local climate leadership.

It must be noted that, while commendable, such sectoral initiatives announced during COP28 will only marginally contribute to closing the emissions gap needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees due to their lack of ambition, clarity, coverage, or accountability. However, they create a positive momentum that can be built upon until the following year.

Inching forward with cautious hope

Incremental progress was certainly made at COP28, but does it match the urgent pace needed to address climate breakdown? For veteran observers like me who recall a time when climate change received little global priority, the fact that such issues occupy center stage at the UN provides some hope.

What gives momentum to that hope is the possibility that technology, market drivers, and public pressure may yet push governments to act at the speed and scale that science demands. As clean energy prices fall and extreme weather events escalate, public demands for faster climate action could unlock more political will over time.

The marathon towards decisive climate action continues, with the baton soon to be passed on to COP29 president Azerbaijan. The coming year will test the resolve of the parties and how they act on what was agreed in Dubai. Supporting lagging nations must occur in tandem with scaling up finance and technology for vulnerable regions.

No one summit can solve the climate crisis alone. But by steadily raising ambition and providing support to one another in the coming years, the 28th climate summit might be looked back at as a milestone on the long road to climate security.

* Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.